In 2022, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin presented Vladimir Putin with a plan to rebuild Mariupol, after Moscow’s armies leveled much of the city early in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Khusnullin envisioned Mariupol’s complete restoration within three years. Despite claims from Russian officials that they’ve met this target, many residents still haven’t found new homes. In a new investigation, journalists at Bumaga Media analyzed statements by the Russian government, examined available data on the city’s reconstruction, and spoke with locals. Meduza summarizes the outlet’s main finding: it would take the Russian authorities another 18 years to finish rebuilding the city at the current pace of construction.

“In reality, thousands of residents have been stripped of the right to return to apartments in [Mariupol’s] better neighborhoods, and new residential complexes have been built for sale on the sites of their former homes. […] Locals are being offered ‘unclaimed’ properties — apartments belonging to others who never registered them with Russia’s property records,” journalists write.

Bumaga obtained information showing that tens of thousands of Mariupol residents likely lost their homes in the war. The city’s pre-invasion population was 450,000, while the U.N., Ukrainian officials, and even some Russian authorities put Mariupol’s December 2024 population at about 375,000 — a decrease of 75,000 people, or 17 percent. At the same time, given officials’ claim that Russian nationals have flocked to the city since Moscow annexed it in 2022, Bumaga journalists calculate that Mariupol will need to rebuild at least to its former housing capacity.

Ahead of his own schedule, Khusnullin declared that “almost all” apartment buildings in Mariupol had been restored by February 2024. However, Bumaga found that the city’s occupation authorities still hold meetings with residents who have yet to be resettled.

Journalists also identified a category of buildings that have been slated for demolition rather than restoration. According to Russia’s local construction officials, Mariupol has 527 such buildings; the Ukrainian authorities estimate that 1,100 buildings have been slated for demolition. As of February 2025, Bumaga found that only 79 of these structures have been rebuilt, with 70 intended to house displaced locals and nine earmarked for mortgage buyers. At this pace, journalists calculate that all Mariupol residents won’t be fully rehoused for another 18 years — not until 2043.

In its investigation, Bumaga emphasizes that its projections are only a rough estimate, given that newer residential buildings tend to be taller and can accommodate more apartment units. Still, many of these new homes are intended for sale rather than for resettling locals.

The rebound in Mariupol’s private housing stock has been similarly sluggish, with only about 5 percent of these damaged residences rebuilt annually. If this work doesn’t speed up, it won’t be finished until 2042, Bumaga writes, noting that its calculations don’t even factor in needed repairs and new construction for Mariupol’s critical infrastructure, such as facilities to handle the city’s supply of water, gas, and electricity. It’s likely that these projects will only extend the timeline for a full recovery, journalists warn.