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“the jackpot age” by thiccythot

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Manage episode 494350733 series 3364758
Content provided by LessWrong. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by LessWrong or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
This essay is about shifts in risk taking towards the worship of jackpots and its broader societal implications. Imagine you are presented with this coin flip game.
How many times do you flip it?
At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world.
However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars.
The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...]
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First published:
July 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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Images from the article:
Mathematical calculations showing outcomes and means for two coin flips.
Table showing relationships between wealth preferences, utility, and coin flip decisions.
Graph showing exponential curve with text
Romantic landscape painting with ancient ruins and tall column beside water.
Quarter dollar coin showing probability calculation for investment returns per flip.This image illustrates a gambling scenario where flipping heads gains 100% while tails loses 60%, with expected value calculations showing a 20% return per flip.
Graph showing
  continue reading

560 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 494350733 series 3364758
Content provided by LessWrong. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by LessWrong or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
This essay is about shifts in risk taking towards the worship of jackpots and its broader societal implications. Imagine you are presented with this coin flip game.
How many times do you flip it?
At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world.
However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars.
The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...]
---
First published:
July 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Mathematical calculations showing outcomes and means for two coin flips.
Table showing relationships between wealth preferences, utility, and coin flip decisions.
Graph showing exponential curve with text
Romantic landscape painting with ancient ruins and tall column beside water.
Quarter dollar coin showing probability calculation for investment returns per flip.This image illustrates a gambling scenario where flipping heads gains 100% while tails loses 60%, with expected value calculations showing a 20% return per flip.
Graph showing
  continue reading

560 episodes

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