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“the jackpot age” by thiccythot
Manage episode 494375390 series 3364760
Content provided by LessWrong. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by LessWrong or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
This essay is about shifts in risk taking towards the worship of jackpots and its broader societal implications. Imagine you are presented with this coin flip game.
How many times do you flip it?
At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world.
However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars.
The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...]
---
First published:
July 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
…
continue reading
How many times do you flip it?
At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world.
However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars.
The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...]
---
First published:
July 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
593 episodes
Share
Manage episode 494375390 series 3364760
Content provided by LessWrong. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by LessWrong or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
This essay is about shifts in risk taking towards the worship of jackpots and its broader societal implications. Imagine you are presented with this coin flip game.
How many times do you flip it?
At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world.
However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars.
The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...]
---
First published:
July 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
…
continue reading
How many times do you flip it?
At first glance the game feels like a money printer. The coin flip has positive expected value of twenty percent of your net worth per flip so you should flip the coin infinitely and eventually accumulate all of the wealth in the world.
However, If we simulate twenty-five thousand people flipping this coin a thousand times, virtually all of them end up with approximately 0 dollars.
The reason almost all outcomes go to zero is because of the multiplicative property of this repeated coin flip. Even though the expected value aka the arithmetic mean of the game is positive at a twenty percent gain per flip, the geometric mean is negative, meaning that the coin [...]
---
First published:
July 11th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3xjgM7hcNznACRzBi/the-jackpot-age
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
593 episodes
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Show notes are at https://stevelitchfield.com/sshow/chat.html
…
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The director’s commentary track for Daring Fireball. Long digressions on Apple, technology, design, movies, and more.
…
continue reading
WSJ’s Bold Names brings you conversations with the leaders of the bold-named companies featured in the pages of The Wall Street Journal. Hosts Tim Higgins and Christopher Mims speak to CEOs and business leaders in interviews that challenge conventional wisdom and take you inside the decisions being made in the C-suite and beyond.
…
continue reading
Stephen Fry's 7 Deady Sins - I will take each one of the Seven Sins in turn, lay them out on the surgical table and poke, prod, pry and provoke in an attempt to try to anatomise and understand them; I hope and believe it will be, if nothing else, delicious fun and something of a change from the usual run of podcastery. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
…
continue reading
Developer Tea exists to help driven developers connect to their ultimate purpose and excel at their work so that they can positively impact the people they influence. With over 17 million downloads to date, Developer Tea is a short podcast hosted by Jonathan Cutrell, engineering leader with over 15 years of industry experience. We hope you'll take the topics from this podcast and continue the conversation, either online or in person with your peers. Email: [email protected]
…
continue reading
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…
continue reading
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…
continue reading
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…
continue reading
Android Backstage, a podcast by and for Android developers. Hosted by developers from the Android engineering team, this show covers topics of interest to Android programmers, with in-depth discussions and interviews with engineers on the Android team at Google. Subscribe to Android Developers YouTube → https://goo.gle/AndroidDevs
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continue reading
Big tech is transforming every aspect of our world. But how, and at what cost? This season of Land of the Giants – The Disney Dilemma – focuses on Disney’s ability to weather the ups and downs of the business cycle and changing tastes and explores what has kept it successful for over 100 years. The entertainment giant has leveraged nostalgia and its intellectual property to build a beloved brand, but after an acquisition spree that included Marvel, Lucasfilm, and 20th Century Fox, can it sus ...
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