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Forty Year IUL Return Probabilities

4d ago 31:49

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When someone asks you about the average rate of return for indexed universal life insurance, you'll discover that average is actually a meaningless number. You need to understand the probability of hitting specific rates of return to make accurate projections about what might happen with your IUL policy.

In this episode, we analyze 40 years of S&P 500 data using rolling periods from 1930 through 2024 to determine real probability outcomes for IUL policies. You'll learn how different cap rates, floor rates, participation rates, and spreads affect your expected returns. We examine scenarios ranging from 10.5% to 11.5% cap rates with various floor options to show you the trade-offs between guaranteed minimums and upside potential.

You'll discover that removing floors in favor of higher caps generally produces better results, with probabilities showing an 86% chance of 7% net returns under certain conditions. We also explore newer IUL structures using participation rates and spreads rather than caps, revealing that 70% participation rates can deliver a 96% probability of 9% returns over 40 years.

The analysis includes net rate of return calculations that account for fees, not just index credits. You'll understand why IUL serves as an enhanced fixed savings strategy rather than true market exposure. We compare these results to actual S&P 500 performance and explain how IUL can function as a de-risking component in your portfolio.

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Ready to explore how IUL might fit into your financial strategy? Contact us to discuss your specific situation and learn more about indexed universal life insurance options.

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