Ilan Kolet | From US Exceptionalism to Canadian Realism Fidelity's Global Recalibration

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8d ago 51:36

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“Things are priced for perfection—but the world isn’t perfect.” — Ilan Kolet

What does it take to navigate a world where the U.S. is no longer the default safe haven? In this powerful episode, Pierre Daillie is joined by Ilan Kolet, Institutional Portfolio Manager on Fidelity Investments Canada’s Global Asset Allocation Team, to break down Fidelity’s latest asset allocation moves—and the four-pillar process guiding them.

From trimming U.S. equities to boosting exposure to Europe and gold, to reassessing the Canadian market after a decade-long underweight, Kolet reveals how Fidelity is tactically rebalancing amid macro volatility, political headwinds, and shifting global capital flows.

📉 We unpack weakening U.S. labor data, 🇨🇦 Canada’s slow productivity renaissance, the potential loss of USD tailwind status, and why gold has emerged as a strategic diversifier in a fractured geopolitical landscape.

Whether you're an advisor, institutional allocator, or just looking to sharpen your portfolio perspective, this conversation is packed with insights you won’t want to miss.

⏱️ CHAPTERS

00:00 – Welcome + The big shift: From U.S. exceptionalism to global pragmatism

02:30 – One year later: What’s changed in Fidelity’s outlook

05:45 – AI tailwinds vs. valuation headwinds

08:25 – What “neutral” really means for U.S. and Canadian equities

10:10 – Canada’s lost decade… and signs of turnaround

14:10 – The slow return of Canadian capital investment

17:00 – Productivity as the key to prosperity

19:40 – Asset allocation as audio mastering: “The equalizer analogy”

22:00 – Gold, Europe, and the art of being selectively offensive

25:45 – The weakening U.S. labor market and the Fed’s dilemma

29:00 – Canada’s rising unemployment: Recession or reset?

32:00 – Political interference and the erosion of central bank independence

36:00 – The U.S. Dollar: Still a hedge, or just a habit?

40:00 – Why Fidelity slashed its CAD underweight and closed its USD long

44:00 – Europe’s defense renaissance and the rise of Rheinmetall

46:30 – Gold as a geopolitical hedge: Inflation, war, and volatility

48:00 – The power of active management: +40% outperformance over passive

50:30 – Wrapping up: From big dials to basis points

📌 KEY INSIGHTS

📉 Underweight U.S.: Valuations are too high, concentration is risky, and macro instability is rising.

🇨🇦 Neutral Canada: After 10+ years underweight, Canadian equities are finally earning back their spot.

🌍 Overweight Europe: A geopolitical awakening in defense spending may unlock long-suppressed value.

🪙 Gold Allocation: A 2.5% out-of-benchmark position to hedge inflation volatility and geopolitical tail risk.

💱 Currency Realignment: From a 20% CAD underweight to just -3%, now diversified beyond USD.

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