Is China Buying US Soybeans and Wheat while the Govt is Shut Down??

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌱 Soybeans & Corn
Soybean and corn futures advanced on Thursday. The Nov25 soybean contract rose 10¢ to about $10.45/bu, its highest level in more than a month. Support came from surging oil prices, optimism over a potential US–China trade deal, and strong crush margins.
The Dec25 corn contract gained 5¢ to $4.28/bu, boosted by strong export demand, firmer basis bids, and limited farmer selling. Rumors swirled of Chinese purchases of US soybeans and wheat—US beans remain 64¢ cheaper than Brazil’s on a global basis.
🌏 Trump–Xi Trade Talks
President Trump and President Xi will meet next Thursday in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC Summit. The talks follow Trump’s recent threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods after Beijing’s new rare earth restrictions.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is meeting with Chinese negotiators in Malaysia this weekend to prepare the groundwork.
🛢️ Oil & Sanctions
The US blacklisted two Russian oil firms, pressuring China to curb Russian crude imports—which make up roughly 20% of its supply. Companies that ignore sanctions risk losing access to global financial systems.
Oil prices jumped 5.6%, with WTI crude at $61.75/bbl.
🥩 Argentine Beef Imports
The US will quadruple beef imports from Argentina, raising the tariff quota to 80,000mt (176M lbs). Critics say it hurts US ranchers and won’t meaningfully lower prices—the increase equals just 0.8% of annual consumption.
🇺🇸 US beef consumption ≈ 28.6B lbs
🇦🇷 Annual beef imports ≈ 5B+ lbs
🐄 US–Mexico Border Talks
Talks resume next week to reopen the border for Mexican feeder cattle. The closure since May, due to a New World screwworm outbreak, has reduced US feedlot placements by ~500,000 head over three months.
🌤️ US Drought Update (USDA Monitor)
Drought conditions were mostly steady last week.
✅ Improvement: Southern IL, Western KY
❌ Worsening: NE Iowa, Eastern IL, Central OK
US Areas Experiencing Drought
🌽 Corn – 32%
🌱 Soybeans – 39%
🌾 Winter Wheat – 43%
🌾 Spring Wheat – 16%
🐄 Cattle – 27%
💬 Stay Informed
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Chapters

1. Is China Buying? Cor/Soy/Wheat Action (00:00:00)

2. US/China Meetings (00:08:59)

3. Crude Rally (00:10:34)

4. Beef Import Plan (00:12:49)

5. Screwworm Update (00:16:16)

6. Drought Update (00:18:15)

1588 episodes

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