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Farm Financial Stress/Bankruptcies Build + China Buys MORE Soybeans

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Manage episode 520485014 series 2864038
Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links—
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌦️ Weather & Drought Update
Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.
• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme
• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK
US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%
💰 Farm Financial Stress
Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.
• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year
• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12
• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)
Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.
🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales
Flash Sales Thursday:
• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)
• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)
• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY
Brazil & Argentina Shipments:
• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)
• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)
• U.S. → 0mt
China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.
📦 Export Sales Snapshot
Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer
Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer
Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer
🐂 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.
• Trump is pushing lower beef prices
• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish
• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further

  continue reading

Chapters

1. Farm Stress (00:00:00)

2. China Buys More (00:05:30)

3. Brazil to China Shipments (00:07:33)

4. Export Sales (00:08:57)

5. Drought Update (00:11:24)

6. Cattle Selloff (00:13:42)

1583 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 520485014 series 2864038
Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links—
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌦️ Weather & Drought Update
Most of the Corn Belt stayed dry last week. Drought intensified in eastern IA/IL, northern MN, and big portions of WI.
• Illinois: 74% in drought, 4.5% extreme
• High Plains: Warm & dry; worsening in eastern NE & southern OK
US Areas in Drought: Corn 32% • Soybeans 33% • Winter Wheat 41% • Spring Wheat 18% • Cattle 33%
💰 Farm Financial Stress
Three straight years of falling profits have pushed the Midwest into a financial crunch.
• Iowa bankruptcies doubled vs last year
• U.S. bankruptcies up nearly 60% YoY, mostly Chapter 12
• Only 48% of Corn Belt farmers expected to turn a profit in 2026 (down from 52%)
Some analysts now compare this downturn to the 1980s Farm Crisis.
🚢 China Purchases & Export Sales
Flash Sales Thursday:
• 462,000mt soybeans → China (25/26 MY)
• 132,000mt white wheat → China (25/26 MY)
• China has now bought 1.8mmt US soybeans since Nov 1 for current MY
Brazil & Argentina Shipments:
• Brazil → 7.1mmt to China in Oct (+29% YoY)
• Argentina → 1.6mmt (+15% YoY)
• U.S. → 0mt
China imported a record 9.5mmt of soybeans in October but has recently ramped up US buying, covering ~15% of its truce commitment.
📦 Export Sales Snapshot
Corn: 2.3mmt — up 62%, Japan biggest buyer
Soybeans: 919,400mt — up 6%, Egypt biggest buyer
Wheat: 887,900mt — up 181%, Mexico biggest buyer
🐂 Cattle Markets
Cattle futures sold off sharply again Thursday on fund pressure and lower cash. Fundamentals remain strong, but technicals continue to dominate.
• Trump is pushing lower beef prices
• Today’s Cattle on Feed expected to be bullish
• Trump removes 40% tariff on Brazilian beef—likely increases imports & pressures prices further

  continue reading

Chapters

1. Farm Stress (00:00:00)

2. China Buys More (00:05:30)

3. Brazil to China Shipments (00:07:33)

4. Export Sales (00:08:57)

5. Drought Update (00:11:24)

6. Cattle Selloff (00:13:42)

1583 episodes

All episodes

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