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Did Leaked Texts and an X Post Just Cost Argentina $20bil?? (Soybean Trade)

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Manage episode 509486925 series 2864038
Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans
4:02 Grain Stocks
9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets
10:39 River Levels
🇦🇷 Trump & Milei Meeting
President Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉
🌽 Corn Stocks Report
USDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres.
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat
Soy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾
🏛️ Partial USDA Shutdown
A government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty.
🚢 Mississippi River Issues
Historic low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.

  continue reading

1546 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 509486925 series 2864038
Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Leaked Texts, Argy, Soybeans
4:02 Grain Stocks
9:12 Govt Shutdown and Markets
10:39 River Levels
🇦🇷 Trump & Milei Meeting
President Trump will meet Argentine President Javier Milei on October 14. Milei is seeking a $20B US credit swap to shore up Argentina’s dollar reserves. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed negotiations are underway, but leaked texts suggest frustration — Argentina suspended grain export taxes, sold soybeans to China, and critics say US farmers are footing the bill. 📉
🌽 Corn Stocks Report
USDA pegged Sept 1 corn stocks at 1.53B bu — down 13% YoY, but 15% above trade expectations. Dec25 corn fell 6¢ to $4.16, its lowest in a month. USDA also revised the 2024 corn crop +25M bu on higher harvested acres.
🌱 Soybeans & Wheat
Soy stocks came in a bit light, yet Nov25 beans still dropped 9¢ to $10.02 on weak export demand. Wheat futures fell as stocks topped both last year and expectations. USDA projects total wheat output at 1.98B bu, with winter wheat up 3% and spring wheat down 9%. 🌾
🏛️ Partial USDA Shutdown
A government shutdown is underway — essential functions continue but most reporting halts. It’s unclear if today’s EIA report, tomorrow’s export sales, or Friday’s CFTC data will be delayed. Roughly 41% of USDA staff remain on duty.
🚢 Mississippi River Issues
Historic low water levels — for the 4th year in a row — are disrupting grain shipments. Southbound flows are down 79% in a month. Draft restrictions and tow limits cut capacity, barge freight rates are climbing, and basis levels are under pressure.

  continue reading

1546 episodes

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