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Corn RALLIES to 4-Month High, USDA to Cut Production Estimate
Manage episode 519414368 series 2864038
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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
đ˝ Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa â a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.
đ USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
⢠Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
⢠US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
⢠Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
⢠October reports were skipped due to the shutdown
đ˘ US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
⢠Corn: 1.4 mmtâdown from last week; Mexico top buyer
⢠Soybeans: 870,500 mtâup 20%; Netherlands top buyer
⢠Wheat: 315,900 mtânear low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer
â˝ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
⢠Output: -2.7%
⢠Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reutersâ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.
đ§đˇ Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
⢠Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
⢠Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
⢠Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
⢠Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)
đ§ď¸ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
⢠Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
⢠Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
⢠High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma
US Areas in Drought:
đ˝ Cornâ29%
đŤ Soybeansâ31%
đž Winter Wheat â 39%
đž Spring Wheatâ17%
đ Cattle â 28%
Chapters
1. Corn Rally (00:00:00)
2. USDA Preview (00:02:28)
3. Export Sales Resume (00:03:51)
4. Ethanol Production (00:07:05)
5. CONAB Brazil Update (00:07:55)
6. US Drought Update (00:09:28)
1575 episodes
Manage episode 519414368 series 2864038
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube
Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
đ˝ Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa â a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.
đ USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
⢠Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
⢠US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
⢠Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
⢠October reports were skipped due to the shutdown
đ˘ US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
⢠Corn: 1.4 mmtâdown from last week; Mexico top buyer
⢠Soybeans: 870,500 mtâup 20%; Netherlands top buyer
⢠Wheat: 315,900 mtânear low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer
â˝ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
⢠Output: -2.7%
⢠Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reutersâ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.
đ§đˇ Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
⢠Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
⢠Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
⢠Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
⢠Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)
đ§ď¸ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
⢠Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
⢠Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
⢠High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma
US Areas in Drought:
đ˝ Cornâ29%
đŤ Soybeansâ31%
đž Winter Wheat â 39%
đž Spring Wheatâ17%
đ Cattle â 28%
Chapters
1. Corn Rally (00:00:00)
2. USDA Preview (00:02:28)
3. Export Sales Resume (00:03:51)
4. Ethanol Production (00:07:05)
5. CONAB Brazil Update (00:07:55)
6. US Drought Update (00:09:28)
1575 episodes
All episodes
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