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Corn RALLIES to 4-Month High, USDA to Cut Production Estimate

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Manage episode 519414368 series 2864038
Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.
📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown
🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer
• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer
• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer
⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
• Output: -2.7%
• Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.
🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)
🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma
US Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn—29%
🫘 Soybeans—31%
🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%
🌾 Spring Wheat—17%
🐄 Cattle — 28%

  continue reading

Chapters

1. Corn Rally (00:00:00)

2. USDA Preview (00:02:28)

3. Export Sales Resume (00:03:51)

4. Ethanol Production (00:07:05)

5. CONAB Brazil Update (00:07:55)

6. US Drought Update (00:09:28)

1575 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 519414368 series 2864038
Content provided by Joe Vaclavik. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Joe Vaclavik or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.com
Grain Markets and Other Stuff Links-
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
TikTok
YouTube

Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

🌽 Corn Futures Rally Ahead of Key USDA Reports
Corn futures pushed higher on Thursday, with the Dec25 contract closing near $4.42, the best level in nearly five months. Traders are bracing for a sharp cut to national corn yield and production, with estimates ranging from 181.7 to 186 bpa — a wide spread tied to the 43-day government shutdown that limited USDA data flow. USDA will also publish all flash sales that occurred during the shutdown.
📝 USDA Crop Production & WASDE Today (11am CST)
Analysts expect a substantial downward revision to national corn yield and overall production. Even with reductions, the crop is still projected to be record large.
• Soybean yield & production expected to see modest declines
• US ending stocks for corn, soybeans & wheat expected to see slight increases
• Minimal changes expected for global ending stocks
• October reports were skipped due to the shutdown
🚢 US Export Sales Return After Shutdown
For the week ending Sept 25:
• Corn: 1.4 mmt—down from last week; Mexico top buyer
• Soybeans: 870,500 mt—up 20%; Netherlands top buyer
• Wheat: 315,900 mt—near low end of expectations; Nigeria top buyer
⛽ US Ethanol Output Falls; Margins Still Strong
Weekly ethanol production slipped to 1.08 mil bpd (-4.3% w/w). Stocks fell to 22.22 mil barrels. Compared to last year:
• Output: -2.7%
• Stocks: +1%
Margins remain solid, ranging from +10 to +30 cents across the Corn Belt based on Reuters’ spot prices for corn, DDGs, inputs, etc.
🇧🇷 Conab: Minor Changes to Brazil Corn & Soybean Outlook
Soybeans:
• Production: 177.6 mmt (record; +3.6% vs last year)
• Exports: 112.1 mmt (+5.1% y/y), reflecting expectations of sluggish US exports
Corn:
• Production: 138.8 mmt (-1.6% y/y)
• Exports: 46.5 mmt (+16% y/y)
🌧️ US Drought Monitor Update
Rainfall was mixed across the Corn Belt last week.
• Improving: NE Illinois, NW Indiana
• Worsening: East-central Illinois, SW Wisconsin
• High Plains: Mostly steady; slight deterioration in eastern Nebraska & parts of Oklahoma
US Areas in Drought:
🌽 Corn—29%
🫘 Soybeans—31%
🌾 Winter Wheat — 39%
🌾 Spring Wheat—17%
🐄 Cattle — 28%

  continue reading

Chapters

1. Corn Rally (00:00:00)

2. USDA Preview (00:02:28)

3. Export Sales Resume (00:03:51)

4. Ethanol Production (00:07:05)

5. CONAB Brazil Update (00:07:55)

6. US Drought Update (00:09:28)

1575 episodes

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