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525 / 《随机漫步的傻瓜》:世界不是连续的,人生也不是

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Manage episode 523778328 series 2511483
Content provided by Bear Liu. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Bear Liu or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

这期节目,我聊的是一本把我思维打碎重建的书——塔勒布的《随机漫步的傻瓜》。这本书讲的不是投资技巧,不是运气游戏,而是让你重新认识世界本来的样子:随机、混乱、不确定。

节目一开始我分享了自己过去的误解,也谈到经历了几次人生小概率事件后,才慢慢看懂书中那些“黑天鹅的教育方式”。比如“幸存者偏差”的逻辑,为什么我们老觉得成功者代表了普遍规律?又比如,为什么预测未来比你想象得更没意义,而真正该做的,是学会避开致命风险。

塔勒布一贯的风格毒舌又锋利,但这本书真正厉害的地方在于:它让你开始质疑那些“理所当然”的解释,接受世界就是不讲道理的现实。听完这一期,你或许不会立刻变得更聪明,但可能会少犯几次“自以为是”的错。

---

## 📚 Show Notes(章节与资源)

- 为什么很多看起来“合理”的故事,其实只是事后拼贴

- 幸存者偏差的本质:你看见的,永远不是全貌

- “黑天鹅式教育”:从地震、裁员到社交媒体幻觉

- “消防站效应”与信息茧房:为什么我们误以为全世界都一样

- 随机性不是异常,而是现实的底层逻辑

- 人生真正该做的,是避开毁灭路径、靠近好运概率

- 塔勒布:预测没用,认清你的无知才是智慧的开始

本期提到的资源:

- 《随机漫步的傻瓜》:塔勒布作品之一,关于人类如何误判世界中的随机性

- 塔勒布其他作品:《黑天鹅》《反脆弱》

- 诺贝尔奖得主卡尼曼对本书的点评:提醒我们别被“自信幻觉”所骗


Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/beartalk/donations
Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
  continue reading

526 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 523778328 series 2511483
Content provided by Bear Liu. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Bear Liu or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

这期节目,我聊的是一本把我思维打碎重建的书——塔勒布的《随机漫步的傻瓜》。这本书讲的不是投资技巧,不是运气游戏,而是让你重新认识世界本来的样子:随机、混乱、不确定。

节目一开始我分享了自己过去的误解,也谈到经历了几次人生小概率事件后,才慢慢看懂书中那些“黑天鹅的教育方式”。比如“幸存者偏差”的逻辑,为什么我们老觉得成功者代表了普遍规律?又比如,为什么预测未来比你想象得更没意义,而真正该做的,是学会避开致命风险。

塔勒布一贯的风格毒舌又锋利,但这本书真正厉害的地方在于:它让你开始质疑那些“理所当然”的解释,接受世界就是不讲道理的现实。听完这一期,你或许不会立刻变得更聪明,但可能会少犯几次“自以为是”的错。

---

## 📚 Show Notes(章节与资源)

- 为什么很多看起来“合理”的故事,其实只是事后拼贴

- 幸存者偏差的本质:你看见的,永远不是全貌

- “黑天鹅式教育”:从地震、裁员到社交媒体幻觉

- “消防站效应”与信息茧房:为什么我们误以为全世界都一样

- 随机性不是异常,而是现实的底层逻辑

- 人生真正该做的,是避开毁灭路径、靠近好运概率

- 塔勒布:预测没用,认清你的无知才是智慧的开始

本期提到的资源:

- 《随机漫步的傻瓜》:塔勒布作品之一,关于人类如何误判世界中的随机性

- 塔勒布其他作品:《黑天鹅》《反脆弱》

- 诺贝尔奖得主卡尼曼对本书的点评:提醒我们别被“自信幻觉”所骗


Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/beartalk/donations
Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brands
Privacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
  continue reading

526 episodes

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