Welcome to Gold Dragon Daily, an AI-powered podcast by Gold Dragon Investments, helping you win the game of passive investing. For more information, visit GotTheGold.com. I'm your host, Justin 2.0.

This is Market Pulse — Thursday's numbers.

Equities:
• Mixed Wednesday
• Dow jumped 0.7% to fresh record high, closing at 48,255
• S&P 500 up marginally to 6,851, adding 0.05%
• Nasdaq slipped 0.3% to 23,406 on continued tech rotation
• Healthcare and industrials leading gains
• Tech sector underperforming as investors rotate into value and defensive sectors
• Market watching Fed rate trajectory and year-end positioning

Oil:
• WTI at $58.43, down 3.4% Wednesday
• Brent at $62.58, down 3.2%
• Both under pressure on oversupply concerns
• OPEC projecting global supply will align with demand in 2026 due to increased OPEC+ production
• OPEC reporting supply exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in Q3
• IEA warning of increasingly unbalanced oil market with rising global inventories and growing surplus expected
• U.S. crude inventories increased 1.3 million barrels last week
• EIA projecting U.S. crude output averaging 13.59 million barrels per day in 2025, 13.58 million in 2026
• Global supply projected at 105.98 million barrels per day in 2025, 107.37 million in 2026
• Global consumption expected 104.14 million barrels per day in 2025, 105.20 million in 2026
• Market pricing in persistent oversupply through 2026

Gas:
• Henry Hub at $4.49 per MMBtu, down 0.91% Wednesday
• Up 48% month-over-month, up 61% year-over-year
• Colder conditions in early December expected to boost heating demand
• Storage levels tightening heading into winter
• LNG export activity supporting prices
• December contract reflecting seasonal premium

Production:
• Permian Basin output steady around 6.6 million barrels per day
• Operators maintaining discipline with WTI near $58
• Hedging activity elevated for 2025 and 2026
• SM Energy hedged 50% of Q4 2025 production at $63 to $69 per barrel
• Matador Resources hedged 70,000 barrels per day second half 2025 with price floor at $52, ceiling at $77
• EON Resources hedged 70% of oil production at $70 to $70.50 per barrel
• Oversupply conditions projected to persist into 2025, potentially reaching 2 million barrels per day
• Drilling activity slowing on price pressure

Real Estate:
• Cap rates stabilizing Q4
• Industrial at 6.3%, up 20 basis points year-over-year
• Investor demand for high-quality logistics assets remains strong
• Quarterly warehouse sales volumes ranging $15 billion to $25 billion
• CMBS delinquency rates low at 0.6%
• Multifamily at 5.63%, highest in eight years
• Apartment transactions surged Q3: $43.8 billion in deals, up 13% year-over-year
• Average price per unit at $227,167
• Vacancy rate at 6.5%
• Office bifurcation continues: Class A at 7.8%, distressed assets at significant discounts
• Fed expected to stabilize rates between 3.5% and 4.0% by year-end
• Transaction volumes improving modestly
• Construction starts down significantly

Credit:
• Markets resilient
• SOAFER stable
• Investment-grade spreads stable
• High-yield spreads widened modestly, ending October 14 basis points wider at 294
• Yields for high-yield market increased 9 basis points to 6.82%
• U.S. high-yield market gained 0.20% in October, year-to-date returns at 7.27%
• Credit investors proving resilient to political uncertainty
• Continued economic growth expected to support strong corporate earnings and low defaults heading into 2026
• Corporate refinancing activity strong

Bottom Line:
Dow hit record 48,255, S&P up 0.05%, Nasdaq down 0.3% on tech rotation. Oil down 3.4% on oversupply fears, WTI at $58, Brent at $63. OPEC and IEA projecting persistent surplus through 2026. Gas at $4.49, up 61% year-over-year on winter demand. Permian steady, operators hedging aggressively at $52 to $70 floors. Real estate stabilizing, industrial at 6.3%, multifamily at 5.63%. Credit markets resilient, high-yield spreads at 294. Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75. Industrial caps sub-5.7%, senior secured credit SOAFER plus 650, LTV under 65%.

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