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This is Market Pulse — Monday's Numbers

Oil
• WTI: $57.80, down 0.19%
• Brent: $62.40, down 0.26%
• WTI-Brent spread: $4.60
• WTI crude oil futures reached lowest level in a month, falling to $57.60 per barrel
• Oil prices trading within descending channel, indicating potential continuation of longer-term downtrend
• Price has fallen more than 5% this month
• Progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks weighing on prices
• Potential agreement could ease sanctions and increase Russian oil supply
• Rising non-OPEC supply and sluggish global demand contributing to decline
• Surprise increase in U.S. fuel inventories signaled weaker demand
• Output increases from OPEC+ members adding downward pressure
• Rising production across the Americas also contributing
• Expectations of increased supply from Iraq and Russia pushing prices lower
• Technical indicators show market stabilizing around $58, but recent patterns indicate hesitation rather than reversal
• 100-day simple moving average below 200-day simple moving average, signaling path of least resistance is to the downside
• Crude oil expected to trade at $58.71 by end of this quarter, with 12-month forecast of $64.26

Gas
• Henry Hub: $4.54, down 0.85%
• Over past month, natural gas prices have increased 13.62%, up 31.90% year-over-year
• December 2025 NYMEX contract increased 2 cents, from $4.53 to $4.55
• Natural gas trading around $4.34, having pulled back from resistance near $4.50 mark
• Support level at $4.20, with strong barrier at $4.75
• Natural gas consolidating after recent rally within ascending channel pattern
• Testing support at 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.30, which coincides with channel bottom
• Weather forecasts impacting demand for heating during autumn and winter seasons
• Colder winter expectations for 2025-2026 expected to push U.S. residential and commercial demand higher
• U.S. production remains strong, with Lower-48 output averaging 109.2 billion cubic feet per day in November, above October levels and near record highs
• LNG feedgas demand robust, with flows to U.S. export plants averaging 18 billion cubic feet per day so far in November, up from record 16.7 billion cubic feet per day in October

Real Estate
• Industrial real estate remains resilient with steady pricing and rent growth despite economic headwinds
• U.S. economy expected to see moderate GDP growth in 2025, around 2.0% to 2.5%, supported by easing financial conditions and consumer spending
• Federal Reserve cut rates in September 2025, with more cuts anticipated by end of year and into 2026
• Healthy tenant demand continues to support strong leasing conditions in industrial sector, helping preserve tight cap rates where there are supply-demand imbalances
• Major logistics hubs like Southern California, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Atlanta reported low industrial vacancy rates in late 2024, leading to increased competition and squeezed cap rates
• Cap rates expected to decline further in 2026
• Nearly one-quarter of respondents in recent survey believe cap rates are past their peak and will begin to decrease over second half of 2025
• Investment activity in 2025 remains consistent with recent years, though slower than 2021 peak
• Average sale prices holding relatively steady
• Some investors shifting focus towards industrial real estate due to consistent occupancy levels and stable cash flows

Credit
• Federal Reserve implemented second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in October 2025, influenced by data indicating cooling labor market
• Anticipation of further rate cuts, with markets pricing in 45% probability of December cut
• However, comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest December rate cut isn't guaranteed
• Market initially reacted to Powell's hawkish tone with stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields
• In Asia, investment-grade and high-yield credit spreads tightened in October 2025
• These spreads expected to remain supported due to easing trade tensions, lower U.S. rates, reduced default risk, and strong market technicals
• SOFR is broad measure of cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by Treasury securities
• New York Fed publishes SOFR each business day at approximately 8:00 AM Eastern Time
• SOFR averages calculated over rolling 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day periods

Bottom Line
• Oil: Target sub-$50 breakevens, hedge floors above $75—Russia-Ukraine peace talks and rising non-OPEC supply driving prices lower, path of least resistance is to the downside
• Gas: Selective exposure, winter contracts locked—colder winter expectations and strong LNG demand supporting prices, but near-term pullback from resistance
• Real Estate: Industrial sub-5.7% caps near logistics hubs—cap rates expected to decline further in 2026 as Fed cuts continue
• Credit: Senior secured, SOFR plus 650, LTV under 65%—Fed rate cuts continue, but December cut not guaranteed, stay defensive on lower-quality credit

That's your Market Pulse update.

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