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What Markets Tell Us About AI Timelines (with Basil Halperin)

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Manage episode 503734516 series 1334308
Content provided by Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He joins the podcast to discuss what economic indicators reveal about AI timelines. We explore why interest rates might rise if markets expect transformative AI, the gap between strong AI benchmarks and limited economic effects, and bottlenecks to AI-driven growth. We also cover market efficiency, automated AI research, and how financial markets may signal progress.

CHAPTERS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(00:49) Introduction and Background

(05:19) Efficient Market Hypothesis Explained

(10:34) Markets and Low Probability Events

(16:09) Information Diffusion on Wall Street

(24:34) Stock Prices vs Interest Rates

(28:47) New Goods Counter-Argument

(40:41) Why Focus on Interest Rates

(45:00) AI Secrecy and Market Efficiency

(50:52) Short Timeline Disagreements

(55:13) Wealth Concentration Effects

(01:01:55) Alternative Economic Indicators

(01:12:47) Benchmarks vs Economic Impact

(01:25:17) Open Research Questions

SOCIAL LINKS:

Website: https://future-of-life-institute-podcast.aipodcast.ing

Twitter (FLI): https://x.com/FLI_org

Twitter (Gus): https://x.com/gusdocker

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-rCCy3FQ-GItDimSR9lhzw/

Apple Podcasts: https://geo.itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/id1170991978

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Op1WO3gwVwCrYHg4eoGyP

PRODUCED BY:

https://aipodcast.ing

  continue reading

478 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 503734516 series 1334308
Content provided by Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Gus Docker and Future of Life Institute or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

Basil Halperin is an assistant professor of economics at the University of Virginia. He joins the podcast to discuss what economic indicators reveal about AI timelines. We explore why interest rates might rise if markets expect transformative AI, the gap between strong AI benchmarks and limited economic effects, and bottlenecks to AI-driven growth. We also cover market efficiency, automated AI research, and how financial markets may signal progress.

CHAPTERS:

(00:00) Episode Preview

(00:49) Introduction and Background

(05:19) Efficient Market Hypothesis Explained

(10:34) Markets and Low Probability Events

(16:09) Information Diffusion on Wall Street

(24:34) Stock Prices vs Interest Rates

(28:47) New Goods Counter-Argument

(40:41) Why Focus on Interest Rates

(45:00) AI Secrecy and Market Efficiency

(50:52) Short Timeline Disagreements

(55:13) Wealth Concentration Effects

(01:01:55) Alternative Economic Indicators

(01:12:47) Benchmarks vs Economic Impact

(01:25:17) Open Research Questions

SOCIAL LINKS:

Website: https://future-of-life-institute-podcast.aipodcast.ing

Twitter (FLI): https://x.com/FLI_org

Twitter (Gus): https://x.com/gusdocker

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/future-of-life-institute/

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC-rCCy3FQ-GItDimSR9lhzw/

Apple Podcasts: https://geo.itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/id1170991978

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2Op1WO3gwVwCrYHg4eoGyP

PRODUCED BY:

https://aipodcast.ing

  continue reading

478 episodes

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