Logistics wins wars long before lines move on the map. We break down a week defined by precision strike waves, encirclement geometry, and river denial that together tilt the odds for winter operations. With Colonel A.C. Oguntoye’s frontline view, we follow how EW hits, depot strikes, and countermobility measures turn flashy offensives into a careful ledger of attrition and stamina.

We start with the theater-wide cadence: grouped missile and UAV strikes against defense industry nodes, rail chokepoints, airfields, repair bases, and storage sites. The aim is simple and cold: exhaust reserve generation and maintenance capacity before the ground hardens. Then we zoom into sectors. In the north, shaping actions degrade ISR and depots to fix brigades and siphon attention away from central fights. Countermobility drives outcomes at the Oskil—deny bridging assets and the pocket closes by arithmetic, not spectacle. The south favors shorter fires and better observation, enabling bite-and-hold advances that force every relief convoy to move farther under harsher surveillance.

Urban fighting becomes a lesson in sustainment math. Multinuclear encirclement slices cities into compartments, starving micropockets of ammunition, Medevac, and communications while FPV drones punish breakouts. Eastward, reported gains signal erosion of trenches and command nodes as EW curtains thin. Along the river corridor, logistics warfare rules: hit depots, jam comms, and cut maritime threats to ease pressure on coastal nodes and tighten ISR. Winter complicates everything—deception bridging, night moves, and drone-heavy scouting—but clarity emerges in three truths: bridges decide pockets, cities are solved by cells, and EW and depots remain the quiet center of gravity.

If central encirclements contract while crossings stay denied, expect reactive reserve shifts that open seams elsewhere. Spoiling attacks could stall this tempo, but the side that rotates cleanly and hides logistics better will shape the month ahead. Join us for a grounded, data-rich briefing, then share your take: which sector bends first, and why? If the analysis helps you think clearer, follow, share with a friend, and leave a review so others can find the show.

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