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Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows

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Manage episode 520210366 series 3300108
Content provided by Blockworks. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Blockworks or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle

(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth

(09:43) Grayscale Ad

(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

(13:41) Recession Odds

(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy

(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7

(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics

(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows

(29:28) Grayscale Ad

(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)

(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints

(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets

(47:21) View on U.S. Equities

(50:57) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

  continue reading

554 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 520210366 series 3300108
Content provided by Blockworks. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Blockworks or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, Capital Flows joins the show to break down how credit growth, falling real rates, and strong cross-border flows fueled the rally from April through summer, and why the Fed’s recent hawkish shift has introduced short-term volatility without meaningfully raising recession risk. We also cover auto-loan stress, the real drivers behind AI-linked equity moves, why geopolitics now shapes liquidity more than the Fed, and more. Enjoy!

__

Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

__

Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.

https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:44) Macro & the Credit Cycle

(05:22) Quantifying Credit Growth

(09:43) Grayscale Ad

(10:24) Impact of Fed’s Hawkish Pivot

(13:41) Recession Odds

(16:38) Auto Loan Stress & Markets vs Economy

(20:28) Market Dispersion & Mag7

(21:22) Mag7: Capex, Financial Engineering, Politics

(25:59) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows

(29:28) Grayscale Ad

(30:16) Geopolitics & Cross-Border Flows (Con’t)

(35:08) U.S.-China Trade Constraints

(40:29) Bitcoin & Neutral Assets

(47:21) View on U.S. Equities

(50:57) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

  continue reading

554 episodes

All episodes

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