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The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson

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Manage episode 512230775 series 3300108
Content provided by Blockworks. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Blockworks or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy!

__

Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle

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Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

__

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:39) George’s Market Outlook

(05:38) Where the Money’s Moving?

(06:57) Trump’s Economic Ripple Effects

(08:56) How the Fed Shapes the Cycle

(15:12) VanEck Ad

(15:56) COVID Spending & Fiscal Fallout

(23:20) Are We in a Recession?

(32:09) VanEck Ad

(32:50) Jobs Data & FICA Withholding

(38:29) Taxes, Tariffs & Shorting the Market

(44:15) Supreme Court and Constitutional Risk

(48:59) When Does the Music Stop?

(54:50) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

  continue reading

541 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 512230775 series 3300108
Content provided by Blockworks. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Blockworks or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy!

__

Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

__

Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for £200 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

__

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:39) George’s Market Outlook

(05:38) Where the Money’s Moving?

(06:57) Trump’s Economic Ripple Effects

(08:56) How the Fed Shapes the Cycle

(15:12) VanEck Ad

(15:56) COVID Spending & Fiscal Fallout

(23:20) Are We in a Recession?

(32:09) VanEck Ad

(32:50) Jobs Data & FICA Withholding

(38:29) Taxes, Tariffs & Shorting the Market

(44:15) Supreme Court and Constitutional Risk

(48:59) When Does the Music Stop?

(54:50) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

  continue reading

541 episodes

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