Monster Selloff in the Straits: Oil's Wild Ride as Iran & Israel Tensions Escalate

Flux News

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In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque and Research Associate Vincent Wu to unpack a volatile week in oil markets following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran - exacerbated by the U.S. stepping in. With a dramatic rally in options and front-end time spreads giving way to an even sharper collapse, the team dissects what actually drove the price action—and what happens next.

This week’s discussion dives into:

• Why options (not flat price) drove the rally: open interest, hedging panic, and call buying hysteria

• The Strait of Hormuz closure fear trade; how serious is the risk of strait closure?

• The Polymarket signal, GPS jamming rumours, and real-time tanker trolling

• How ADNOC’s tactics sparked chaos in the physical market - and put the Murban benchmark at risk

• CTAs, hedge funds, and retail: who made money, and who got smoked?

• Refinery margins explode again: who hedged at the top and what it means for supply

• Plus: the return of OPEC to the spotlight - and why Trump’s oil tweets may matter more than ever

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