The Great Moderation is Over. The Great Convergence is Here | Luca Paolini on What Comes Next

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4d ago 58:10

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In this episode, we speak with Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, about the firm’s 2025 Secular Outlook and the unfolding shift in global markets. Paolini argues that the era of U.S. exceptionalism is fading—and investors may be mispricing what comes next. We discuss why the “Great Convergence” could redefine asset allocation, what it means for U.S. equities and the dollar, and why now might be the time to lean into bonds and income-generating assets.

Paolini also shares his views on inflation, tariffs, AI, private markets, and the challenges of navigating a low-return, high-risk world. Whether you're a global macro watcher or a long-term investor thinking about regime shifts, this conversation offers a roadmap for the next five years.

Topics covered include:

Why the U.S. may no longer deserve its valuation premium
How debt and protectionism threaten global growth
Why the next five years could see converging returns across regions and assets
The investment case for bonds, credit, and emerging market debt
AI’s impact on productivity and equity concentration
The future role of gold, crypto, and private assets in portfolios

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