October 13, 2025 | Season 7 | Episode 38

A sudden policy shock from Beijing and a hardline tariff posture from Washington can erase trillions in market value in a day—and that’s exactly what just happened. We walk through the sequence: China widens export controls on rare earths and related technologies, the White House floats a 100% additional tariff that would lift rates to 140%, and both sides layer on shipping levies that threaten to raise costs on everything from refined fuels to consumer goods. Then the tone shifts, rhetoric cools, and futures bounce. The message for investors is clear: supply chains, semiconductors, and shipping are now front-line macro variables.
We unpack why rare earth policy matters far beyond magnets and defense: even small content thresholds can trap complex products, complicating compliance across autos, EVs, and AI hardware. China’s latest export data show a strategic reorientation—declines to the U.S. offset by gains to Africa, the EU, and Southeast Asia—reducing susceptibility to a single-market squeeze. Add a U.S. government shutdown, questions over federal pay, and earnings season on deck, and you have a fragile tape where headlines steer intraday momentum.
Flight-to-safety behavior is back. Gold extends its rally as global wealth questions fiscal discipline and sovereign risk, while silver spikes on a thin-market squeeze and policy speculation. We dig into credit, where stress finally surfaced: alleged collateral issues, subprime auto weakness, and a rethink on private credit’s liquidity push BDC yields into double digits and discounts to NAV wider. That sets the stage for selective opportunity—first-lien exposure with disciplined underwriting—while reminding us that leverage and fees can cut both ways.
On the equity side, we highlight AI infrastructure as a resilient theme, with server demand supporting names tied to custom chips and data center buildouts. Valuations outside the megacap cohort remain compelling, but execution depends on mineral access, shipping costs, and export approvals. We close with practical takeaways: keep cash optionality, diversify supply risk, size gold positions thoughtfully, and be choosy in high yield and BDCs. If this helped you navigate a volatile week, follow the show, share it with a friend who watches the tape, and leave a quick review to tell us what you want covered next.

** For informational and educational purposes only, not intended as investment advice. Views and opinions are subject to change without notice.
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