EMS & The Economist (November 2025) - Shutdown Shockwaves And Smarter Supply Chains
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In this episode of EMS & The Economist with Global Electronics Association Shawn DuBravac, we start with the longest U.S. government shutdown on record and how it choked off official data when leaders needed it most. With unemployment figures stale and signals flashing mixed, we turned to industry metrics: book‑to‑bill ratios that look balanced, backlogs that finally eased, and a defense sector still pulling hard, especially in Europe.
From there, we dive into the AI surge. Yes, the investment is huge, but today’s spend doesn’t rhyme with the dot‑com era. Hyperscalers like Meta, Google, and Amazon are deploying earnings rather than piling on fragile debt, building capacity they know they’ll use over a longer horizon. Even if there’s some overbuild, the bigger near‑term constraint isn’t hype—it’s electricity. Power availability, interconnect queues, and grid readiness now shape the slope of data center growth and the electronics demand tied to it.
Tariffs never left the stage, so companies stopped waiting for clean answers. We share how manufacturers are hedging with flexible footprints: in‑sourcing select lines, shifting from China to the U.S. or Mexico, and using USMCA to blunt steel and aluminum tariffs. We also unpack the legal uncertainty around AIPA and what rapid refunds could mean—a de facto stimulus that could unleash purchases and CapEx, or sit idle if policy risk stays high. Across the supply chain, smarter BOM visibility and analytics help teams decide what to absorb, what to pass through, and when to move.
Looking ahead, we set expectations for Productronica and CES. AI touches everything from enterprise infrastructure to wearables, robotics momentum is building, and autonomy has crossed from possible to feasible—especially as a service. Waymo's millions of miles point to real utilization, even if personal AV ownership remains a longer‑term play, with regulation and weather still setting the pace. If you care about where electronics goes next, keep your eye on AI‑enabled demand, power constraints, and the quiet agility moves inside supply chains.
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EMS@C-Level is sponsored by global inspection leaders Koh Young (https://www.kohyoung.com) and Creative Electron (https://creativeelectron.com)
You can see video versions of all of the EMS@C-Level pods on our YouTube playlist.
Chapters
1. EMS & The Economist (November 2025) - Shutdown Shockwaves And Smarter Supply Chains (00:00:00)
2. Longest Shutdown And Data Gaps (00:00:06)
3. Reopening Timelines And Lost Indicators (00:00:33)
4. Book-To-Bill And Sector Sentiment (00:01:45)
5. Strong Aggregates, Narrow Foundations (00:03:03)
6. AI Bubble Or Durable Supercycle (00:04:13)
7. Power Limits On Data Center Growth (00:06:26)
8. Tariffs, Agility, And In‑Sourcing Shifts (00:06:44)
9. Legal Uncertainty And Possible Refund Windfall (00:08:29)
10. Supply Chain Mitigation And Cost Relief (00:09:30)
11. CES Outlook: AI, Robotics, Defense (00:11:25)
12. Autonomy Matures As A Service (00:13:20)
13. Closing And Event Meetups (00:15:45)
285 episodes