Ryan Bridge: Trump's unpredictability is predictable

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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11d ago 2:02

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Another Reserve Bank rate cut.

It was largely as expected - 25 basis points.

The rest of the press conference and much of the Monetary Policy Statement itself was focused on the ‘unpredictable’ global environment.

We can’t say this because we don’t know what Trump will do. We can’t be certain about that because XYZ. Trade war, etc, etc.

But at what point does unpredictability become predictable, and therefore not the great threat we make it out to be?

Yes, Trump went nuts on Liberation day. The sky fell in, then he calls a ceasefire in May. The markets have recouped all their losses, the indices are patchy but largely back to where they were. Trade talks are ongoing.

The IMF yesterday upgraded Britain’s growth. US consumer confidence actually increased last month. China’s industrial growth for April was positive yesterday. Our agriculture exports are doing the business abroad.

Trump rants and raves on twitter. He un-announces stuff as quickly as he announces stuff.

He’s impulsive, emotionally reactive, and vindictive. He’s a weathervane.

The political equivalent of Katy Perry, cause he’s hot then he’s cold. He’s in then he’s out. He’s up then he’s down. He’s yes then he’s no. He’s wrong when it’s right, he’s black when it’s white...

You get the point.

The point ism we know this about him.

We know he’s unpredictable and that makes his unpredictability, predictable.

I reckon we aren’t taking his threats as seriously as we were two months ago.

Not the US consumer, not Chinese industry, not us.

And you know who else should stop paying him so much attention?

The Reserve Bank.

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