Ryan Bridge: Are we on the cusp of an economic turn around?

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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4d ago 2:00

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We've got a bunch of new economic numbers this morning.

The recovery is underway. Finally.

We've had false dawns before, so I'm not overcooking this, but things are moving in the right direction. Investor confidence is up for Q3.

Most regions are getting a slice of the recovery action, according to Infometrics.

What's most interesting is investor confidence, led by Auckland, is up quite a bit and they're not worrying so much about the dramatic headlines from Trump, etc. They're shrugging them off.

And our attitudes to different types of investment are changing.

The proportion of us who see owning our own home as the best investment is now at its lowest level since 2015, and young people are loving stocks.

Which is no surprise - the S&P's up around 14% this year, house prices are falling or flat.

Which might help explain why the mood on capital gains seems to have shifted a bit.

But here's the thing with the capital gains: it will not lower house prices, it will not fix the structural deficit.

It will provide tax revenue for doctors visits, sure. But can those doctors visits be delivered, or just advertised in some brochure like Kiwibuild?

And to those who are enjoying success with stocks, congratulations.

Your gains aren't taxed, but property is the canary in the coal mine. It's a warning of more to come.

Give a politician an inch and they'll take a mile.

Look at the fundamentals of it. This CGT won't fix the stuff you'd expect it to fix and still leaves the State short of revenue.

So they'll eventually come for something else, and that something will be whatever's popular.

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Ryan Bridge: Are we on the cusp of an economic turn around?

Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

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published 4d ago