UKRAINE RUSSIA: No Fighting End in Sight

Daniel Davis Deep Dive

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Trump’s Position: Former President Trump indicated he has a "red line" for U.S. involvement in the conflict but won't publicly define it. He believes the U.S. should never have been involved, calling it a "death trap."

Stalemate in Negotiations: Despite recent calls and dialogue between global leaders, the positions of Ukraine and Russia have become more entrenched, with little sign of compromise.

Russian Perspective: A former British official notes that Russia feels emboldened due to perceived divisions in the West and sees itself as addressing long-standing security concerns, especially NATO's eastward expansion. These concerns date back to the early 2000s.

Loss of Military Dialogue: After the 2014 annexation of Crimea, military-to-military dialogue between Russia and the West was cut off. The official believes this was a serious mistake that eliminated valuable channels of understanding and conflict prevention.

Zelensky's Position: Ukrainian President Zelensky has firmly rejected Russian demands, vowing never to surrender Ukrainian territory or accept ultimatums.

Intractable Conflict: The gap between Russia and Ukraine’s demands remains wide. Russia insists on territorial withdrawals by Ukraine, while Ukraine refuses any concessions.

Western Limitations: There's acknowledgment that while the West supports Ukraine, it has not provided enough to ensure a decisive victory. The policy has been to support just enough to resist, but not enough to win outright.

Inevitable Negotiations: There’s broad agreement that the war won’t end militarily but through a negotiated settlement. However, the conditions for that remain distant.

Root Causes Ignored: The West has largely failed to engage with what Russia views as the root causes of the conflict, such as NATO expansion and security concerns, which has hindered diplomatic solutions.

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