On FOMC day the 25 basis point cut is the headline, but the episode argues the real story is in the subtext: Powell’s tone, quantitative tightening (QT), and real‑time data like the Truflation index. With official statistics impaired by a government shutdown, markets are looking elsewhere for signals.

Conflicting indicators — a reaccelerating Truflation number versus large corporate layoffs and a weakening jobs picture — create a tough tradeoff for the Fed and major implications for risk assets. The episode weighs short‑term cycle risk against longer‑term structural catalysts like regulatory clarity and institutional inflows.

Bottom line: watch QT and balance sheet guidance, favor Bitcoin and select narratives, and exercise patience while institutional capital and regulatory shifts set the stage for a potential 2026 pivot.
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