This week’s sunflower market report highlights diverging regional outcomes, shifting trade dynamics.

• In Russia, the 2025 sunflower harvest presented mixed results. The Southern Federal District suffered a 37.6 percent year-over-year yield drop due to severe drought, with average yields falling to 12.3 centners per hectare. However, yield increases exceeding 20 percent in the Volga and Central regions partially offset these losses. National production is now forecasted between 17.4 and 18.5 million tons, potentially surpassing 2024 levels. Sunflower seed exports rose 27 percent, primarily to EAEU countries, while sunflower oil exports declined by 34 percent. Recent increases in export duties on sunflower oil and meal may reshape future trade flows and domestic market behavior.
• Ukraine’s outlook has weakened, with the USDA revising its harvest forecast down by 800,000 tons to 12.7 million tons. Southern regions were hardest hit by poor weather, pushing yields down to 1.55 tons per hectare. Although central and western regions performed better, they were unable to compensate for the decline. Sunflower oil exports dropped 24 percent year over year, with no exports to India recorded in August 2025. Globally, falling palm oil and soybean oil prices, influenced by United States–China trade tensions, are putting pressure on sunflower oil markets.
• Kazakhstan has expanded its role in the global market. Increased planted area and production drove a 27 percent annual rise in sunflower oil output. Policy support through VAT reductions and preferential loans has supported this growth. Kazakhstan’s exports, especially to China, are benefiting from competitive pricing.
• Turkey reported a 2.4-fold increase in raw sunflower seed imports, reaching 800,000 tons, which reduced its reliance on sunflower oil imports by 13 percent. Turkish buyers showed a preference for competitively priced Russian sunflower oil, reducing demand for Ukrainian exports.
• Overall, global sunflower production forecasts have been revised downward due to setbacks in Ukraine and the European Union. However, gains in Kazakhstan and Argentina may help offset the global shortfall. As supplies tighten, international sunflower oil prices are expected to remain elevated.