This episode explores key trends affecting the global sunflower oil market.

• In Ukraine, sunflower oil prices have fallen to $1,200 per ton at CPT port as of September 12, reflecting a $15 drop. This decline is closely linked to weakening soybean oil prices amid geopolitical tensions between the United States and China. Additionally, rising palm oil inventories in Malaysia have compounded downward price pressure. As Ukraine’s sunflower harvest progresses—with over 200,000 tons already collected—yield variability and anticipated supply increases from the northern and western regions are likely to further influence prices. Simultaneously, demand for high oleic sunflower varieties is rising, driven by reduced olive oil output in Mediterranean nations.
• In Russia, southern regions are reporting a sharp decline in yields due to heat and drought, reaching a 13-year low of 1.17 tons per hectare—a 35.4 percent drop from the previous year. However, overall harvest projections remain optimistic, with a forecast of 18.5 million tons, a 9.5 percent increase year-on-year, supported by stronger performance in regions like the Volga. Notably, sunflower exports from Russia have risen by 27 percent in the first eight months of the year, primarily to EAEU countries. Yet, sunflower oil exports have declined by 34 percent, indicating a growing divergence between raw material and processed oil markets.
• Globally, edible oil markets are exhibiting strong interconnectivity. Soybean oil price movements, Malaysian palm oil stock levels, and climatic impacts on Mediterranean olive oil supplies are all shaping sunflower oil pricing. Upcoming industry events, such as the Bayntriet International Conference in Kyiv, are expected to shed further light on the evolving landscape.