This episode offers a detailed summary of the global canola market as of July 20, 2025.

• Australia is nearing a significant trade breakthrough with China that could revive canola exports suspended since 2020 due to concerns over blackleg disease. The tentative agreement, likely to begin with five test shipments, signals a potential reset in trade relations. This development has already influenced ICE canola futures, contributing to a price decline as markets anticipate heightened competition in China.
• Australia's May canola exports were strong, totaling over 617,000 tons with key buyers including Belgium, Pakistan, and the United Arab Emirates. However, future export volumes are expected to decline due to reduced stock levels and increased supply from Northern Hemisphere producers. A reopening of the Chinese market could realign global trade flows and introduce downward pressure on global canola prices.
• China, which currently imports around 4 million metric tons of canola annually for cooking oil, renewable fuels, and animal feed, remains central to the global trade landscape. Amid strained relations with Canada—including 100 percent tariffs and an active anti-dumping probe—China’s move to reintroduce Australian canola would diversify its sourcing and reduce reliance on Canadian imports.
• This shift poses a competitive threat to Canada, which faces both economic and diplomatic headwinds. ICE futures for Canadian canola have declined, with notable drops in November contracts. Despite challenges, Canadian production forecasts remain positive, although some regions like Saskatchewan may see output reductions due to unfavorable crop conditions.
• As trade routes evolve and geopolitical tensions persist, Canadian exporters must strategically navigate these changes to maintain their market position, particularly in relation to the influential Chinese market.