This episode explores the latest developments in the global maize market.

• Argentina is facing significant harvest delays due to persistent rainfall during a critical period, with just over 31 percent of the maize area harvested by late April. Despite the setbacks, crop conditions have improved year over year, with 38 percent now rated good to excellent, and the overall yield forecast remains optimistic at approximately 49 million tons.
• In Japan, trade negotiations with the United States include discussions on increasing corn imports. This is part of a broader strategy to secure tariff exemptions for Japan’s export sectors, especially automobiles. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has advocated for corn imports as a more politically feasible alternative to increasing rice imports. In 2024, U.S. corn exports to Japan totaled $2.8 billion, highlighting the importance of this relationship.
• Brazil anticipates a robust maize harvest for the 2024-2025 season, projected at 124.7 million tons. However, a 6.1 percent price drop in April and a decline in exports—particularly to China—signal shifting dynamics. Mato Grosso experienced an 18.25 percent year-over-year export decline, with China’s share dropping sharply due to rising domestic production. Brazil plans to import 1.7 million tons to meet local demand and offset second harvest concerns. Additionally, corn ethanol output is projected to reach 7.8 billion liters, up 32.4 percent, demonstrating the crop’s growing role in Brazil’s energy sector.
• On a global scale, corn stocks are expected to hit their lowest level since the 2013-2014 season. Despite this, significant price impacts are not anticipated, as markets remain more sensitive to supply conditions in the United States. Rising ending stocks in major exporters like the U.S. are expected to offset declines elsewhere. Global corn consumption is projected to reach a record 1.274 billion metric tons, with production forecasted at 1.265 billion metric tons, supported by expanded acreage and improved yields in countries such as the U.S., Ukraine, and Argentina.