This week’s coffee market update & currency shifts.

• In Brazil, the depreciation of the real has made coffee exports more globally competitive, contributing to a decline in international coffee prices. Favorable rains in Minas Gerais have supported the flowering of Arabica trees, improving outlooks. However, ongoing harvest pressures and reduced export projections from Brazil, reported by Kanab, are weighing down market sentiment. Looking ahead, concerns are mounting over a potential La Niña event, which could bring dry conditions and threaten future yields.
• Vietnam is experiencing a robust production year, with Robusta output projected to rise by 6 percent to a four-year high, driven by favorable weather. This increase is matched by a 7.8 percent rise in exports, reinforcing Vietnam’s status as a global Robusta leader. However, Typhoon Hualoy has introduced fresh challenges, with flooding restricting farm access and potentially disrupting the supply chain if conditions persist.
• In the United States, tight supplies of both Arabica and Robusta have followed the imposition of a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports. This has sharply reduced iced coffee inventories and led to price drops, with Arabica at a 1.5-year low and Robusta at a 2.25-month low, illustrating how trade barriers are reshaping market dynamics.
• Globally, the USDA projects a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase in coffee production for the 2025 Tristosnik season, largely driven by a 7.9 percent boost in Robusta output. Yet, despite high ending stock expectations, Volcafe forecasts an Arabica deficit for the fifth consecutive year.