This week’s episode covers critical developments in the global coffee market.

• Brazil reports a sharp 49 percent year-over-year decline in Robusta coffee exports for July, contributing to an overall 20.4 percent drop in unroasted coffee exports. Despite the lower export volume, revenue reached a record high, driven by global supply shortages and elevated prices. However, new 50 percent tariffs imposed by the United States on Brazilian coffee—mirroring levies on other agricultural commodities—pose significant challenges. The tariffs are expected to impact trade flows and potentially lead to inventory buildups. Meanwhile, Brazil's 2025-2026 coffee output is projected to rise slightly to 65 million bags, even as Arabica stocks remain at a 1.25-year low. A light frost in Cerrado Monero triggered temporary price gains, highlighting weather-related vulnerabilities.
• In domestic developments, coffee from Mandaguari in Paraná received Brazil’s first official designation of origin, enhancing its market appeal. Vietnam's domestic coffee prices surged in July, influenced by global supply dynamics and domestic production factors. Despite prior drought issues, Vietnam's 2025-2026 harvest is expected to increase by 6.9 percent to 31 million bags, the highest in four years.
• Globally, the coffee market remains volatile due to geopolitical tensions, weather conditions, and disrupted supply chains. The U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee are reshaping global trade, creating new opportunities for exporters such as Vietnam and Colombia to fill emerging supply gaps. Forecasts suggest a potential increase in global coffee output, which may ease persistent Arabica shortages now entering a fifth consecutive year.