Murphy’s Law suggests that if something can go wrong, it will, but this oversimplifies reality. Most of the time, things go right, even when procedures are ignored or actions are flawed, which can create a false sense of safety. Instead of focusing on outcomes alone, we need to examine the processes that led to success or failure, using tools like structured debriefs. By asking questions like “Were we good, or were we lucky?” and exploring both what went well and what needs improvement, we can identify and address risks before they lead to serious consequences. Near-misses and incidents, like the recent tragic chlorine gas leak in Aqaba, offer critical learning opportunities, revealing how systemic issues often underlie individual errors. Ultimately, effective safety management comes from understanding and addressing the deeper factors that influence behavior, not just following rules blindly or blaming outcomes.

Original blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/murphy-was-wrong

Links: Chlorine blast in Jordan: https://youtu.be/iMBEfa-5wbs

DeBRIEF guide: https://www.thehumandiver.com/debrief

The illusion of Safety blog: https://www.thehumandiver.com/blog/quarks-and-meows-the-state-of-diving-safety

Tags: English, Decision-Making, Gareth Lock, Risk, Risk Management