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Betting on the future via prediction markets, with Stephen Grugett of Manifold

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Manage episode 431765328 series 3585666
Content provided by Patrick McKenzie. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Patrick McKenzie or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.


Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/


Sponsors: Safebase

Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast

Links:


Twitter:
@patio11

@ManifoldMarkets


Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:26) Understanding prediction markets

(02:15) Manifold's calibration and performance

(06:48) The role of bots in prediction markets

(10:52) User-created markets and community practices

(15:49) Forecasting, and superforecasters

(18:26) Crafting good markets on Manifold

(23:07) Sponsor: Check

(24:20) Evolution of Manifold's loan system

(26:13) Market participation and capital efficiency

(27:57) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold

(28:57) Social aspects of market participation

(32:31) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory

(34:57) Innovative use cases for prediction markets

(38:52) Prediction market vs. traditional market

(42:22) Play money markets with real cash prizes

(46:14) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets

(49:32) The importance of market optics

(50:44) Wrap

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

  continue reading

42 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 431765328 series 3585666
Content provided by Patrick McKenzie. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Patrick McKenzie or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philosophical value of prediction markets.


Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/prediction-markets-stephen-grugett/


Sponsors: Safebase

Ready to save time and close deals faster? Inbound security reviews shouldn’t slow down your team or your sales cycle. Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast

Links:


Twitter:
@patio11

@ManifoldMarkets


Timestamps:

(00:00) Intro

(00:26) Understanding prediction markets

(02:15) Manifold's calibration and performance

(06:48) The role of bots in prediction markets

(10:52) User-created markets and community practices

(15:49) Forecasting, and superforecasters

(18:26) Crafting good markets on Manifold

(23:07) Sponsor: Check

(24:20) Evolution of Manifold's loan system

(26:13) Market participation and capital efficiency

(27:57) The LK-99 superconductor markets on Manifold

(28:57) Social aspects of market participation

(32:31) Building Manifold and user growth trajectory

(34:57) Innovative use cases for prediction markets

(38:52) Prediction market vs. traditional market

(42:22) Play money markets with real cash prizes

(46:14) Historical and regulatory context of prediction markets

(49:32) The importance of market optics

(50:44) Wrap

Complex Systems is part of the Turpentine podcast network.

  continue reading

42 episodes

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