In this CIO Perspectives discussion, Sid Ahl, Erika Pagel and Sargent McGowan (CIO of Endowments & Foundations) analyze recent market resilience amidst significant uncertainty, including trade policy shifts, US deficits, and geopolitical tensions. Despite these challenges, equity markets have rallied, with notable sector rotation and international outperformance—Europe and China up over 20% year-to-date, and a broadening beyond US large caps. Tariff uncertainty, tech sector strength, and AI-driven earnings have underpinned the rally, while inflation and the Fed’s cautious stance add complexity.

The panel highlights the importance of diversification, active management, and global exposure, particularly given elevated US valuations and regulatory uncertainty. They discuss the ongoing attractiveness of small caps due to valuation discounts and alpha opportunities despite structural headwinds and note a strategic increase in Japanese equities due to favorable valuations and corporate reforms.

For endowment and foundation clients, liquidity and scenario planning are emphasized, along with maintaining long-term return targets through diversification—including hedge funds, private equity, and secondary market opportunities. Fixed income portfolios have shifted toward higher quality and shorter duration, with an eye on yield curve movements and government debt concerns.

The team is also selectively increasing private credit and distressed allocations as supply-demand dynamics in private markets improve. Throughout, the CIOs stress disciplined asset allocation, tactical rebalancing, and the need to balance risk exposures, particularly in a market marked by rapid change and persistent uncertainty.

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The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is an unmanaged, market-value weighted index composed of taxable U.S. investment grade, fixed rate bond market securities, including government, government agency, corporate, asset-backed, and mortgage-backed securities between one and 10 years.

The ISM Manufacturing Index, also known as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), is a monthly indicator of U.S. economic activit...