Flash Forward is a show about possible (and not so possible) future scenarios. What would the warranty on a sex robot look like? How would diplomacy work if we couldn’t lie? Could there ever be a fecal transplant black market? (Complicated, it wouldn’t, and yes, respectively, in case you’re curious.) Hosted and produced by award winning science journalist Rose Eveleth, each episode combines audio drama and journalism to go deep on potential tomorrows, and uncovers what those futures might re ...
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Similar to Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
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2025 AI reality check: Are we in a bubble?
Manage episode 493460083 series 2498265
Content provided by EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar and Azeem Azhar. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar and Azeem Azhar or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.
In this episode you’ll hear:
- The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problems
- When bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summer
- The Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscape
- Climate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two years
- What I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistance
- Why getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecasting
- The 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulence
Our new show
This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.
The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected].
Azeem’s links:
- Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
- Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem
Timestamps:
(00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025
(01:23) #1: No AI Wall
(03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment
(05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans
(06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF
(08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify
(09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records
(10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear
(11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately
(12:01) What I missed
(12:14) The CapEx boom around AI
(13:56) The rise of humanoid robots
(14:36) AI's impact on the workforce
(18:40) Looking ahead
(18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next
(19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks"
(21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble
(23:02) A question for the future
Production:
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd
205 episodes
Share
Manage episode 493460083 series 2498265
Content provided by EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar and Azeem Azhar. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by EPIIPLUS 1 Ltd / Azeem Azhar and Azeem Azhar or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
At the start of the year, I made seven predictions about how 2025 would unfold. Six months in, it's time to mark my own work. From AI capability breakthroughs to autonomous vehicles, climate extremes to workforce transformation, I examine what I got right, what I missed, and why the 2027-2028 period will be when vertical AI hits the real economy in force.
In this episode you’ll hear:
- The AI wall that never came: Ten-million-token models exist, O3 scores 25% on Frontier Math vs GPT-4's 2%, but some models are inconsistent and overthink problems
- When bots officially out-talk humans: My modeling shows LLMs crossed the threshold of producing more text than humans sometime this summer
- The Waymo vs Uber SF battle: They've beaten Lyft and expanded to New York, but Tesla's Austin robo-taxi fleet changes the competitive landscape
- Climate and energy predictions that were "too easy": Record climate extremes, 30% solar growth, and Indonesia's stunning EV jump from 20% to 80% in two years
- What I completely missed: The AI capex boom, humanoid robots at Figure/BMW/Amazon, and workforce impact with CEOs reporting 20-50% AI assistance
- Why getting too many predictions right is a problem: I reflect on whether scoring too well means I didn't push boundaries enough in my forecasting
- The 2027-2028 turbulence ahead: Why four-year-old AI startups challenging incumbents while early adopters reap deep organizational benefits will create economic turbulence
Our new show
This was originally recorded for “Friday with Azeem Azhar”, a new show that takes place every Friday at 9am PT and 12pm ET. You can tune in through my Substack linked below.
The format is experimental and we’d love your feedback, so feel free to comment or email your thoughts to our team at [email protected].
Azeem’s links:
- Substack: https://www.exponentialview.co/
- Website: https://www.azeemazhar.com/
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/azhar?originalSubdomain=uk
- Twitter/X: https://x.com/azeem
Timestamps:
(00:00) Grading my predictions from January 2025
(01:23) #1: No AI Wall
(03:59) #2: Warp-speed deployment
(05:16) #3: Bots out-talk humans
(06:24) #4: Waymo overtakes Uber in SF
(08:31) #5: Climate extremes intensify
(09:09) #6: Solar keeps breaking records
(10:06) #7: EVs shift up a gear
(11:12) The problem with predicting too accurately
(12:01) What I missed
(12:14) The CapEx boom around AI
(13:56) The rise of humanoid robots
(14:36) AI's impact on the workforce
(18:40) Looking ahead
(18:48) Infrastructure first, apps next
(19:52) 2027/2028 will be a "period of fireworks"
(21:39) When we'll find out if AI is a bubble
(23:02) A question for the future
Production:
Production by supermix.io and EPIIPLUS1 Ltd
205 episodes
All episodes
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Similar to Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Flash Forward is a show about possible (and not so possible) future scenarios. What would the warranty on a sex robot look like? How would diplomacy work if we couldn’t lie? Could there ever be a fecal transplant black market? (Complicated, it wouldn’t, and yes, respectively, in case you’re curious.) Hosted and produced by award winning science journalist Rose Eveleth, each episode combines audio drama and journalism to go deep on potential tomorrows, and uncovers what those futures might re ...
…
continue reading
Redefining AI is the 2024 New York Digital Award winning tech podcast! Discover a whole new take on Artificial Intelligence in joining host Lauren Hawker Zafer, a top voice in Artificial Intelligence on LinkedIn, for insightful chats that unravel the fascinating world of tech innovation, use case exploration and AI knowledge. Dive into candid discussions with accomplished industry experts and established academics. With each episode, you'll expand your grasp of cutting-edge technologies and ...
…
continue reading
The power of Data is undeniable. And unharnessed - it’s nothing but chaos. Making data your ally. Using it to lead with confidence and clarity. Host Jess Carter is solving problems in real-time to reveal what’s possible. Helping communities and people thrive. This is Data Driven Leadership, a show brought to you by Resultant.
…
continue reading
Investor Shayle Kann is asking big questions about how to decarbonize the planet: How cheap can clean energy get? Will artificial intelligence speed up climate solutions? Where is the smart money going into climate technologies? Every week on Catalyst, Shayle explains the world of climate tech with prominent experts, investors, researchers, and executives. Produced by Latitude Media.
…
continue reading
Show notes are at https://stevelitchfield.com/sshow/chat.html
…
continue reading
The American healthcare system is one of the most innovative in the world. But it’s also riddled with complex challenges, such as access to affordable medications, inefficiency and administrative burdens, and communication barriers between providers. There’s clearly a better way—and at Surescripts, we have a unique sightline into what that may be. In this series, host Melanie Marcus, Chief Marketing Officer of Surescripts, sits down with today’s most inspiring and innovative leaders in healt ...
…
continue reading
The 21st Century began with the rise of the Internet and social media. The next decade will mark the rise of the Intelligent Machines. AI will inhabit all our devices from cars and appliances to smart phones and robots. The Intelligent Machines podcast explores the most exciting revolution humanity has ever seen, filled with promise and peril. More than ever we need to understand what these new devices will bring to our lives and how to make best use of them as the 21st century unfolds. On t ...
…
continue reading
TechStuff is getting a system update. Everything you love about Tech Stuff now twice the bandwidth with new hosts, Oz Woloshyn (Sleepwalkers) and Karah Preiss (Sleepwalkers). Oz and Karah bring humour and wit to the table as they break down what's happening in tech...and what it says about us. TechStuff is the podcast where technology meets culture. We speak to the folks building the future to understand what tomorrow will look like and how our technology is changing us: how we live, how we ...
…
continue reading
For more than a dozen years, the Stack Overflow Podcast has been exploring what it means to be a software developer and how the art and practice of programming is changing our world. From Rails to React, from Java to Node.js, join the Stack home team for conversations with fascinating guests to help you understand how technology is made and where it’s headed.
…
continue reading
Tom Merritt and the team help you stay up to date with an independent, authoritative and trustworthy tech news briefing. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
…
continue reading
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Go offline with the Player FM app!
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