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RoR: Reflections on Risk

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Manage episode 506545958 series 2516749
Content provided by Dean Curnutt. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Dean Curnutt or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this discussion, I share my thoughts on the backdrop for both SPX realized and implied volatility, as I explore the question of whether there is value in optionality. We have 3 things going in terms of realized vol at the index level. It’s low, it’s especially low on SPX down days, and it’s remarkably stable. My take is that the combination here can play tricks on how we think about risk. We are prone to letting our guards down. Next, I share a 5-part framework for addressing the question, “is insurance worth it?”. I find that certain proxy hedges like HYG provide excellent value at current ultra-skinny option premium levels. Next, I review the GOAT (Great Opportunities and Threats) portfolio which overlays gold and bitcoin as diversifying assets and index put spreads as insurance on a base portfolio that is long the SPX. The risk-return characteristics of the GOAT are decidedly better than those of the SPX in 2025. I also explore the pricing of SPX vol skew and how it is a headwind for collar hedging trades. Lastly, the topic of correlation is on my mind, especially as it is an input into structured derivatives trades that often cost too much. I hope you enjoy the discussion and find it useful. Have a great week.

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226 episodes

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RoR: Reflections on Risk

Alpha Exchange

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Manage episode 506545958 series 2516749
Content provided by Dean Curnutt. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Dean Curnutt or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.

In this discussion, I share my thoughts on the backdrop for both SPX realized and implied volatility, as I explore the question of whether there is value in optionality. We have 3 things going in terms of realized vol at the index level. It’s low, it’s especially low on SPX down days, and it’s remarkably stable. My take is that the combination here can play tricks on how we think about risk. We are prone to letting our guards down. Next, I share a 5-part framework for addressing the question, “is insurance worth it?”. I find that certain proxy hedges like HYG provide excellent value at current ultra-skinny option premium levels. Next, I review the GOAT (Great Opportunities and Threats) portfolio which overlays gold and bitcoin as diversifying assets and index put spreads as insurance on a base portfolio that is long the SPX. The risk-return characteristics of the GOAT are decidedly better than those of the SPX in 2025. I also explore the pricing of SPX vol skew and how it is a headwind for collar hedging trades. Lastly, the topic of correlation is on my mind, especially as it is an input into structured derivatives trades that often cost too much. I hope you enjoy the discussion and find it useful. Have a great week.

  continue reading

226 episodes

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