Hi everyone – welcome back to your [AI-generated] 3 Shifts Edition. We hope this writing finds you safe and well.

Our first Shift examines the massive insured losses stemming from the catastrophic Los Angeles wildfires, and what it will mean for homeowners and insurers in the future. Higher premiums in the years ahead are a given. The question is how will they be passed along.

Next, China’s investment push in AI is paying off, with its models climbing the leaderboards. DeepSeek-V3 is now leading the market among open models. What makes DeepSeek-V3 particularly notable is that it offers comparable performance to leading proprietary models like Anthropic’s Claude 3.5 Sonnet v2 but is 53x cheaper for inference.

Finally, Trump wants NATO countries to increase their defense spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP. His claim during the campaign that he would not defend a member that didn’t meet its target is also raising questions about NATO countries’ overreliance on the US security umbrella.

As always, if you have any feedback for us, feel free to hit ‘reply’ and let us know what you think.

Thank you.

– Tam

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