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Software Engineering Job Postings in 2025 And What To Do About It
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Software Development Job Market in 2025: Challenges & Opportunities
Market Downturn Analysis
Interest Rate Impact
- Fed rates rose from ~0% to 5%, ending era of "free money" for VCs
- Job postings dropped to COVID-era levels (index ~60) from 2022 peak (index ~220)
- High rates reducing startup funding and venture capital activity
Monopoly Effects
- Big tech companies engaged in defensive hiring to block competitors
- Market distortions from trillion-dollar companies with limited competition
- Regulatory failure to break up tech monopolies contributed to hiring instability
AI Impact Reality Check
- LLMs primarily boost senior developer productivity
- No evidence of AI replacing programming jobs
- Tool comparison: Similar to Stack Overflow or programming books
- Benefits experienced developers most; requires deep domain knowledge
Economic Headwinds
- Tariff threats driving continued inflation
- Government workforce reductions adding job seekers to market
- AI investment showing weak ROI
- Growing competition in AI space (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, etc.) reducing profit potential
Opportunities
Value-Based Skills
- Focus on cost reduction and efficiency
- Build solutions 100-1000x cheaper
- Target performance-critical systems
- Learn Rust for system optimization
Independent Business
- Solo companies more viable with:
- LLM assistance for faster development
- Cloud infrastructure availability
- Ready-made payment systems
- API composability
Geographic Strategy
- Consider lower cost US regions
- Explore international locations with high living standards
- Remote work enabling location flexibility
Market Positioning
- Consulting opportunities from over-firing
- Focus on cost-saving technologies
- Build multiple revenue streams
- Target sectors needing operational efficiency
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