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Mitu Gulati Podcasts

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Ukraine's Expansive "Fiscal Laws" Clause International sovereign bonds, and particularly those issued under English law, often include a clause providing that payments are subject to the applicable "fiscal and other laws." Usually, the clause makes clear this refers to fiscal laws in the “place of payment” (e.g., Luxembourg). Separately, internatio…
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The Greek GDP Warrant DramaGreece’s debt situation has improved remarkably, from default status in 2012 to investment grade in 2025. A few weeks ago though, Bloomberg reported on a brewing drama with the GDP warrants that were offered to investors in the brutal 2012 restructuring. Apparently, Greece has elected to exercise its right to call the war…
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Some Questions, Now That it's About 3 Years Since Russia’s Default It has now been around 3 years since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which prompted EU and US sanctions and a default on Russia’s external bonds. The prescription clause in these bonds says that Russia’s obligations become void unless investors make claims within three years of the da…
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Sovereign Debt Odd & Ends An odds and ends podcast about unrelated sovereign debt topics. First up, Venezuela. Most investors have been sitting around waiting for an eventual restructuring and lifting of US sanctions. But a handful of funds sued early, got judgments, and have spent years trying unsuccessfully to collect. If they had succeeded, they…
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Is There Any Law of State Succession? Syria, Ukraine and Greenland.The law of state succession to obligations comes mostly from a different era, when war and conquest were legal and borders changed with some frequency. Today, we are faced with multiple situations where borders might change due to war. Does the law tell us what happens to the debts …
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What if Trump Discovers that Unpaid UK (and French) Debt From WWI?The current administration has tossed concepts such as “special relationships” with allies out the window. The administration seems willing to apply just about any leverage it has to obtain concessions from allies, including concessions that might reduce the US debt. Seen in that lig…
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What Might a Syrian Debt Restructuring (Eventually) Look Like?There is little doubt that Syria needs to restructure its debt, among other reasons to pave the way for rebuilding after a long and brutal civil war. It strikes us as too early to envision what that process will look like, but we can identify some of the key issues. The country owes a lo…
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User Fees on the US Treasury Strategic Gold Crypto ReserveTrump plans to reduce the US debt. We are missing some of the steps, but here are the ones we have identified so far:1. Golden passports2. Tariffs3. Maybe not tariffs4. Okay, tariffs5. Something about gold6. User fee on treasuries7. Crypto8. ???We speculate about what we are missing. Maybe i…
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Why Do We Care Who is Behind HRB’s Sri Lankan Lawsuit?The Hamilton Bank litigation against Sri Lanka appears to be reaching the end. Or is it? The stays that were granted during restructuring talks have implications for future sovereign debt restructurings, we think. Especially Venezuela’s restructuring, which is going to be a huge undertaking. And…
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Greece’s (Ratings) Rise From the Ashes – Wow, but also How?We study sovereign restructurings, which means we primarily study countries going into and struggling to get out of crisis. Serial defaulters such as Argentina and Ecuador are frequent topics on our podcasts. And given how bad things were a decade ago, and its history of frequent defaults b…
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Getting "J. Screwed" Sounds Better than Getting "Argentina'd"In the world of corporate debt, everyone seems to be talking about "Liability Management Exercises," where a borrower, with a subset of creditors, exploits loose loan covenants in ways that leave other creditors screaming mad. Even better, these LME techniques have clever names: "trap doo…
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Is Sri Lanka’s Loss Reinstatement Provision a Penalty?Two of our favorite things to talk about are innovative contract clauses and ancient illogical contract doctrines that unexpectedly bite in the ass. A few weeks ago, we walked through the Loss Reinstatement provisions for Ghana and Zambia. We asked the question of whether those provisions might …
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Sri Lanka's New MFC Clause — Have "Contorts" Arrived in Sovereign Debt? The doctrine of tortious interference with contracts is one of several that sits at the intersection of tort and contract law. These "contorts" confuse law students — lawyers and law professors too! — but can be important in practice. If not anticipated, they can create problem…
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YPF and Argentina’s Contributions to International Law Argentina owes over $16 billion in connection with its nationalization of state oil company YPF. A federal judge in the Southern District of New York is considering whether to order Argentina to hand over its shares in YPF — technically located outside the United States — to pay part of the jud…
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The Penalty Doctrine in Contract LawWe've never been fans of the contract law rule against penalties. Why can't parties (sophisticated ones at least) agree to suffer a penalty in the event of breach? We’d ordinarily avoid this topic, because the doctrine makes little sense and the issue doesn’t come up much in the sovereign debt world. But recently…
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A New Competition For Law (and Jurisdiction)?Jurisdictions famously compete for businesses to use their corporate law. Less discussed is the competition for having one’s law chosen to govern contracts. But it happens. Sovereign debt lawyers in England and New York can, if they have a few drinks in them, can be quite entertaining in their sniping at…
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An Execution Sale is Not a Receivership. (Right?)Creditors of Venezuela and PDVSA, its state oil company, have forced an execution sale of PDVSA's only US asset – which happens to be the ultimate parent company of CITGO. The federal judge overseeing the process has tried to keep things orderly, but the inter-creditor fighting is getting juicy. Some…
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Hamilton Bank v. Sri Lanka: What the $@#$ ?Accusations that Hamilton Bank is a giant fraudster stealing depositor funds, bizarro requests from Hamilton to the court that other creditors be constrained in using their contract rights against it, an amicus intervention in the case to say nothing at all . . . and on and on. This case gets more and more…
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Zambia’s Restructuring: A Post-MortemZambia’s recently concluded restructuring seemed to drag on forever, debilitated by conflicts among the various creditor groups. Why did these different groups think the others were being unreasonable in their demands? And what can we learn from what happened? Our guest is one of the keenest observers in the sov…
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The Champerty ShowAh, Champerty. Perpetual runner-up, to the doctrine of consideration, in the Stupidest Legal Rule pageant. Why do directly (e.g., via the abuse of process claim) what you can do clumsily and indirectly (by limiting an injured party’s access to finance)? But what do we know? Actually, not much. We do know that Venezuela/PDVSA won a…
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IMF Rescues Pakistan From the Brink of Default (Again)Pakistan looks to be in the process of finalizing yet another IMF program. Yet again, it has been rescued from the brink of default with a bailout justified by some heroic assumptions about how a state of sustainability will magically materialize. Why? Our guest, Zohra Ahmed, of Boston Universit…
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A Better Way to Freeze (and Seize?) Russian Assets? Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, there has been talk of what international law doctrines might be utilized to induce Russia to back off. One of those doctrines that has been whispered about is now, thanks to a wonderful new article by our guest, international law guru and Yale Law profes…
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Cambodia’s Debts to the US: How “Dirty” Are They?Roughly a half century ago, in the 1970s, the US infamously bombed Cambodia. Less known is that the US, through a “Food for Peace” program, made a series of loans to the somewhat dodgy government of General Lon Nol. The loans were made, at least in part, to assist Cambodians displaced by the bombings…
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Ukraine's Preliminary Debt Restructuring DealUkraine reportedly has reached terms with a subset of its bondholders, agreeing to restructure the country's roughly $24 billion in bond debt. What to make of the deal? It seems (to our view) to be premised on the IMF's entirely unrealistic assumptions about Ukraine's future debt repayment capacity. The …
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Tortious Interference and Inter-Creditor DutiesCreditors in sovereign debt restructurings often complain about other creditors. And creditors often try to limit what other creditors get (at least indirectly, via most favored nations clauses, comparability of treatment, etc.). Can these efforts sometimes create a risk of liability? Does that risk ev…
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El Salvador’s Warrants: Bukele’s Folly?El Salvador has issued a new bond, using part of the proceeds to buy back some bonds that mature in the relatively near term. The issuance includes a detachable warrant that pays up to an additional 4% if El Salvador does not get an IMF program in place soon (or achieve a higher credit rating). The issuance ha…
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The Latest in the Argentine GDP Warrant Saga: Drafting Goof or Sneaky Drafting?There are so many intriguing aspects of the latest installment of the Argentine GDP Warrant Saga. This time, from Judge Preska in the SDNY, Argentina scores a big, and for us, totally unexpected victory. Argentina’s lawyers, at a very late stage, discovered a magic bulle…
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Lessons from the 1980s Debt CrisisThe 1980s debt crisis began in Mexico and engulfed countries around the world, leading, via the Brady Plan, to the revival of the bond markets. Beyond that, we confess to relatively little knowledge about this fundamental episode in sovereign debt history. For so many of the leading lights of the contemporary sover…
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A Way to Use Frozen Russian Assets to Help Ukraine?There has been much chatter lately about a proposal from Lee Buchheit, Daleep Singh and Hugo Dixon to address concerns in Western nations about using frozen Russian assets to get Ukraine much needed war financing. One might ask why these nations are so concerned about confiscating Russian assets wh…
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Ukrenergo ConfusionRumor has it that holders of bonds issued by Ukrenergo, the state-owned corporation that runs Ukraine's electricity distribution system, expect to get better treatment in a debt restructuring, even though their bonds are guaranteed by the state and at least arguably can be forced to vote alongside holders of Ukrainian sovereign b…
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Who Benefits from Lifting Sanctions on Buying Venezuelan Bonds?Banning U.S. parties from buying Venezuelan bonds was probably a bad idea. But was it a good idea to lift the ban last fall? Investors apparently sold the Biden administration on the idea that lifting the ban would yield big benefits: bonds had migrated into the hands of parties acting …
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The Last Sovereign Bond in New YorkDue to litigation over the PDVSA 2020 bond, all future issues of sovereign bonds in New York have been canceled, effective immediately. (PDVSA is quasi-sovereign, but whatever...) You may have heard that New York’s highest court has ruled that investors cannot enforce sovereign bonds, period. Well, maybe that's no…
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Something Black in the Lentils at UkrenegroA few weeks ago, there was an announcement that some of the creditors of the Ukrainian electric company, Ukrenegro, wanted their debt restructuring talks to be separate from any broader Ukrainian debt restructuring. And the prices of the Ukrenegro bonds (backed by a sovereign guarantee) shot up. This intri…
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Back to the Future (Again) -- Russian Frozen Assets EpisodeIn recent months, there has been much talk about what to do with frozen Russian assets and, in particular, whether they can be repurposed to aid Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion. This is not the first time that large amounts of Russian assets have been frozen though, with h…
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Tierra del Fuego and Tinfoil HatsThe financial press has mostly overlooked the recent debt restructuring by Argentine province Tierra del Fuego. (To be fair, Mark has overlooked it too.) But there were aspects of the deal that might strike some as a bit coercive – like an initial proposal to pay investors who consented early more than investors who…
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Can Someone Explain What is Happening to SLBs?A year and a half or so ago, we were working on a paper with UVA’s Quinn Curtis on how the promises being made in the typical “use of proceeds” Green Bonds were empty. In the course of that project, we had loads of conversations with industry insiders, who largely agreed, but said that we were studying …
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Equity Receiverships and Sovereign DebtObservers of sovereign debt markets have long lamented the inability to impose restructuring terms on dissenting creditors. Indeed, there are currently several bills pending – some of which are utterly bonkers, in our view – in New York to change the law in ways that will limit holdout activity in sovereign de…
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How Much of the YPF Judgement Will Burford, Realistically, Recover?Burford Capital, a highly sophisticated litigation finance operation, has won an enormous judgment ($16 billion, where its share is upwards of $6 billion) against the Republic of Argentina. The question is how much of this judgment Burford is realistically likely to be able to colle…
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Argentina's 2001 Debt Saga RevisitedArgentina's 2001 default spawned nearly 15 years of litigation, culminating in the (in)famous pari passu injunction. Many episodes of the saga have been told in isolation, but it is complicated—FRANs, pari passu, Lock Law, RUFO, etc.—and, until recently, we didn't know of anything that captured it in full. Our gu…
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What the FRAN?This episode is on Argentina's famous FRANs (floating rate accrual notes). The notes were intended to protect holders against the risk that the country's credit would deteriorate... and boy did they ever. Due to a drafting glitch, or a simple failure of imagination, the FRANs wound up earning a few lucky (well, smart) investors somewh…
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What to Make of the Stay Order in Hamilton Reserve Bank v. Sri Lanka?Strange things have been going on in the Hamilton Reserve Bank v. Sri Lanka case in New York federal court. Recently, in response to requests from the US and other governments, the judge agreed to stay the lawsuit for 6 months before giving HRB a judgment. We have long been confus…
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China’s Defaulted War DebtsWe’ve long viewed China’s defaulted debt from the first half of the twentieth century through the lens of the communist government refusing to pay back the defaulted debts of Imperial China. But historian Elya Zhang’s wonderful work on China’s debts documents how the story is much more complex and, in particular, how the …
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China’s Impact on Sovereign Debt RestructuringsThere has been much chatter (a lot of it out of Washington) about how China is mucking up the financial architecture for sovereign debt restructurings. Given the political and strategic biases of much of the chatter, it is often hard to separate out real claims from bullshit. Political scientists, Laur…
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Dodgy SLBsWe’ve been intrigued by the potential of sustainability-linked bonds. In theory, they should improve on green, “use of proceeds” bonds by providing incentives for issuers to invest in emissions reductions and other climate-related objectives. That’s why many in the green finance world were excited about them. But how are they working out …
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Are sustainability-linked bonds here to stay?Sustainability-linked bonds (SLBs) tie the issuer’s payment obligations to the satisfaction of some environmental benchmark. In principle, this could be good and provide an incentive for bond issuers to set ambitious climate-related goals. In reality, SLBs have proven a bit of a bummer. They set unambiti…
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Sovereign Sustainability Linked Bonds: What’s Going On?The newest product on the sovereign scene is the sustainability linked bond. The product is potentially exciting because, on its face, it seems to remedy some of the incentive problems embedded in the more commonly used “use of proceeds” green bonds. Chile and Uruguay have issued slbs with cons…
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Venezuelan Debt: The CITGO Auction, Statute of Limitations, and Other Enforcement Matters It’s a busy time for Venezuela’s creditors. The auction process is starting for the sale of Venezuela’s ownership interest in US-based refiner CITGO. The six year statute of limitations on bond claims is coming up, and both the Maduro government and the Nation…
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Chasing Payment on Old Cuban DebtWe have a great fondness on this podcast for unpaid historical debts and the attempts to litigate these. One such story is that of Cuban debts. Our guest is Rebecca Burton of Linklaters (London), who joins us to talk about the saga of CRF v. Banco Nacional de Cuba and the 2023 ruling out of the High Court in London.…
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Unpacking the Argentine GDP Warrants Case In 2005 and 2010, Argentina issued GDP-linked warrants as a sweetener to investors participating in its debt restructurings. At the time, the warrants didn’t seem so sweet. Holders assigned them little value, and most got rid of the warrants for pennies on the dollar. But in April, in a lawsuit brought by h…
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Is a Diaspora Bond a Loan or a Gift? Contract law distinguishes contracts from promises to make a gift. Contracts are enforceable; gift promises are not. Theories supporting this distinction note that gift promises often are made in relational and non-market settings where reputational and other enforcement mechanisms work well, and where legal enf…
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