Best Nassim Taleb Podcasts (2025)

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#289 Michael Howell: Time To Start Thinking About The End Game As Liquidity Cycle Nears Top 52:50

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1h ago52:50

52:50

Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital, an investment advisory firm, and author of Capital Wars, returns to The Julia La Roche Show, where he analyzes global liquidity trends and warns of market risks ahead. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Howell presents his global …

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Jim Cramer on the Retail Trading Revolution 53:54

1d ago53:54

53:54

In recent years, retail trading of stocks has absolutely exploded. This is happening despite the fact that investors are subject to a constant stream of propaganda that individuals can't beat the market, and that the proper way to invest is through low-cost index funds that you don't pay regular attention to. More than anyone else, one man has been…

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#288 Chris Whalen: Fed Caused Housing Emergency, Rate Cuts Won't Fix It 38:13

3d ago38:13

38:13

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show for an in-person episode to recap the FOMC, discuss the state of the economy, housing, and his highest conviction ideas. Sponsor: Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: Twitter/X: https://twitter.com/rcwhalen We…

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Michael Froman on the New 'Polyamorous' Global Trading System 46:11

4d ago46:11

46:11

When President Trump announced the tariffs on Liberation Day, it seemed to truly mark the end of the old world trading system. But of course it had been dying for a long time. The first Trump administration erected aggressive trading barriers against China. Then Biden expanded them further. And there were signs of its demise even under Obama. So wh…

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#287 Danielle DiMartino Booth: The Fed Chose Independence Over The Economy Even As A Double-Dip Recession Unfolds 34:02

1h ago34:02

34:02

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio following the September FOMC. DiMartino Booth argues the Fed "chose independence over economy" with its 25bp cut, as Waller and Bowman sacrificed potential Fed chair positions by not dissenting for larger cuts. She presents compelling evidence the US h…

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Henry Wang on China's Role in the New Emerging World Order 53:13

4d ago53:13

53:13

There is a widespread view that China is a superpower of rising status, and that a new global order is emerging with the country as an important pole in it. You see this with the growing BRICS organization. You also see this with the leaders who went to Beijing recently for the country's military parade. And of course, this comes at a time when the…

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Elon Musk's Pay Package and the Threat to the Delaware Corporation 37:10

5d ago37:10

37:10

If you look at prospectuses and earnings documents for almost any company, you're going to see a Delaware address. For more than a century, the state has been the place to go to if you're setting up a business. And in fact, Delaware has catered to these corporate clients, setting up an efficient chancery court to settle corporate disputes and produ…

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The Cardboard Boxpocalypse and the State of the US Economy 43:32

8d ago43:32

43:32

Almost everything we buy nowadays has been in a box at some point. Goods are shipped in boxes. Products ordered online arrive at our doorstep in boxes. Boxes are so ubiquitous that some strategists use them as an unconventional macroeconomic indicator to gauge retail spending. Now, shipments of boxes are falling dramatically. At the same time, pric…

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Vineer Bhansali on Losing Fed Independence as the Biggest Tail Risk Right Now 45:00

10d ago45:00

45:00

Everyone wants to buy the hedge that will save their portfolio in a time of collapse. But this is easier said than done. You need to understand the specific risks facing your portfolio. You also need to get the disaster state right. Plus, insurance of any sort is costly. This means tail risk hedging is far from a trivial exercise. On this episode, …

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Rob Kaplan on the Fed, AI, and How Globalization Is Happening Without the US 31:18

11d ago31:18

31:18

In this live episode, recorded at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, California, we speak with Rob Kaplan, the former president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and the current vice chairman of Goldman Sachs. We discuss his views on the rate path, and why he does not see the Fed cutting by 50 bps at the next meeting. We also discuss t…

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What China's Military Parade and Newest Jets Tell Us About the Battle For Air Supremacy 40:34

12d ago40:34

40:34

The recent parade in Beijing once again raised questions about the relative strengths of the US and Chinese militaries. Meanwhile, because of recent global conflicts (including the clash between Indian and Pakistan earlier this year), we've gotten fresh data on how certain hardware actually holds up on the battlefield or in the skies. Separately, C…

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#286 Chris Whalen: Time To Go Risk-Off, Why A Treasury Crisis Could Be Ahead, & Gold Displaces The Dollar 31:02

11d ago31:02

31:02

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show his monthly appearance. In this episode, Whalen reports taking a risk-off position after 30% gains this year, noting Wall Street hedge funds are similarly going net short amid concerns about Treasury market stability. He warns tha…

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Josh Wolfe on AI and the Breaking of Silicon Valley's Social Contract 50:40

15d ago50:40

50:40

One day it's so over. The next day we're so back. This is what it feels like gauging the AI boom right now. Everyone's looking for signs of some kind of slowdown and that investments aren't going pan out, but mostly, the dollar signs just keep piling up. And the AI winners like Nvidia, OpenAI, and Anthropic just keep seeing their market valuations …

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Everybody's Business: The Business of KPop Demon Hunters 44:25

16d ago44:25

44:25

For this week’s episode of Bloomberg’s Everybody’s Business, Joe Wiesenthal joins Max Chafkin and Stacey Vanek Smith to fact check President Trump’s recent claim that the “stock market needs the tariffs, they want the tariffs." Is it actually possible to tell how markets feel about tariffs? Do the markets even know themselves? The trio dives deep. …

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#285 Ted Oakley: Expensive Markets, Fed Mistakes, And The Case For Commodities 41:46

9d ago41:46

41:46

Ted Oakley, Managing Partner and Founder of Oxbow Advisors, joins Julia La Roche on episode 285 to discuss the economy and markets. Sponsored by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia In this episode, Ted warns that markets are extremely expensive at 23x future earnings while the economy is flatlining. He expects coming Fed rate cuts to…

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Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report 24:04

19d ago24:04

24:04

We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time …

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What's Behind the Boom in Buy Now Pay Later 36:08

19d ago36:08

36:08

Buy Now Pay Later is everywhere nowadays. Companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna have brought installment payments into everyday life, while big banks and tech firms also now racing into the space. With the market growing so rapidly, there are obvious concerns over whether BNPL is adding a new layer of 'hidden leverage' to the economy, giving …

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Dan Wang on China's Breakneck Economic Growth 49:59

22d ago49:59

49:59

In the past couple of years, the world has fully awoken to the incredible economic and technological growth exhibited by China. But what lessons are there for America? Are there even lessons for America? Dan Wang, research fellow at Stanford University's Hoover History Lab, has probably been one of the foremost commentators and observers on China's…

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Big Take: Taylor Swift Wedding Predictions Are the Hottest New Trade 15:27

23d ago15:27

15:27

Gamblers on prediction sites like Polymarket and Kalshi are already trying to cash in on Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement — betting on everything from their wedding timeline to her next single. On today’s Big Take podcast, host Sarah Holder sits down with Bloomberg personal finance reporter Francesca Maglione and wealth reporter Annie Mas…

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Emi Nakamura on Central Bank Credibility and the Taylor Rule 36:25

25d ago36:25

36:25

The post-Covid inflation will prove to be a treasure trove for academic economists, as they study what drives inflation, and the power that central banks have to contain it once it gets going. At this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, UC Berkeley professor Emi Nakamura presented a new paper — co-authored with her Berkeley colleagues Jón Stein…

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#284 Melody Wright: We're In An Insane Housing Bubble Fueled By Speculation That's Worse Than 2008 31:00

12d ago31:00

31:00

Melody Wright, author of M3 Melody Substack, returns to the show for episode 284 where she delivers a stark assessment of the housing market. Sponsor: This episode is brought to you by Monetary Metals. https://monetary-metals.com/julia Links: YouTube; https://www.youtube.com/@m3_melody X: https://x.com/m3_melody Substack: https://m3melody.substack.…

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Liz Truss on the 'Doom Loop' Engulfing the UK Economy 58:22

26d ago58:22

58:22

These days, everyone is talking about high interest rates across the rich, developed world, while warning of eventual fiscal disaster. But we may have gotten an early glimpse of this anxiety in October 2022, when then-UK Prime Minister Liz Truss unveiled her mini-budget that spooked the gilt market. Well today, rates at the long end of the British …

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Lev Menand on Trump's Attempt to Fire the Fed's Lisa Cook 28:42

28d ago28:42

28:42

Criticism and threats to Federal Reserve independence have been building for some time in this administration. But it was taken to a new height on August 25, when Trump posted that he intended to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee. According to our guest, Columbia Law Professor Lev Menand, this is a big deal that has created an immediat…

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#283 Warren Pies On The Widening Perception Gap In Macro, Why A Rate Cut Is Inconsequential, 46:04

28d ago46:04

46:04

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, explains how markets have transitioned from a deflationary mindset to a debasement era over the past five years, driven primarily by massive fiscal spending rather than Fed policy. He argues that anger directed at the Fed should be redirected toward fiscal authorities who created unprecedented pro-cyclica…

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Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World 57:41

28d ago57:41

57:41

The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise…

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Tom Barkin on Why Central Banking Is on Hard Mode Now 28:45

29d ago28:45

28:45

According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightfor…

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91. Techno Optimism Vs Socialism. Mentioning Marc Andreessen, Sam Altman & More 1:00:45

16d ago1:00:45

1:00:45

https://a16z.com/the-techno-optimist-manifesto/"Techno-optimism is the belief that rapid technological progress is the main driver of human prosperity and should be pursued as a moral imperative. It argues that:Growth = Good: Innovation creates abundance, longer lives, and better living standards.Barriers = Bad: Regulation, caution, and pessimism s…

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Why Austan Goolsbee Is Still Concerned About Inflation 34:35

1M ago34:35

34:35

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This is noteworthy because in general markets are expecting rate cuts to come soon, and also Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, put more weight on risks to the labor market. In this episode…

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Lots More on What Just Happened With the Fed at Jackson Hole 18:01

1M ago18:01

18:01

We're still at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where we just heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell's big speech. The speech -- which opened the door to a September rate cut -- proved to be a dovish surprise to the market and stocks are now soaring because of it. But why did Powell decide to focus on what he…

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#282 Jim Bianco: Fed Chair Powell 'Caved' In Jackson Hole, A Rate Cut in September Would Be A Mistake 31:07

20d ago31:07

31:07

Jim Bianco, president of Bianco Research, returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 282 to react to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Bianco argues Powell "caved" on rate cuts despite inappropriate conditions, with core inflation above 3% and markets at all-time highs. He explains that the pandemic permanently changed th…

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Kansas City's Fed President on What Everyone Will Be Talking About at Jackson Hole 50:22

1M ago50:22

50:22

It's Jackson Hole time again, when the most prominent minds in monetary policy meet in an idyllic Wyoming setting for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual symposium on monetary policy. For markets, the main event tends to be the speech from the Fed Chairman. But beyond that, there's always a theme that central bankers and academics are …

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This Is What Happens When a Startup Dies 46:32

1M ago46:32

46:32

You always hear about startup exits. Big acquisitions. Big IPOs. But of course this isn’t the fate for most new ventures. Many of them die outright, without any kind of “exit” at all for shareholders. So how do you wind down a company, and sell off the scraps? How do you actually pull the plug? David Johnson of Resolution Financial Advisors special…

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Lessons From the One Sovereign Wealth Fund in the United States 46:51

1M ago46:51

46:51

President Trump and others have talked about the idea of the US having a Sovereign Wealth Fund, a la the UAE or Singapore. It feels like a longshot, but as it turns out, there is actually one Sovereign Wealth Fund in the United States, which is the Alaska Permanent Fund. The fund was established in the 1970s to manage the state's booming oil fortun…

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Housing Is a Problem Even in a State With Declining Population 52:21

1M ago52:21

52:21

You can kind of understand why it's so hard to build housing in New York City. There isn't much available land. It's already pretty built up. And then, add in the fact that so many people want to live in New York, and you can understand why it's so expensive. But what's the deal with Alaska? There seems to be plenty of land. And population has actu…

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#281 Peter Grandich: The Stock Market Is 'Very Vulnerable' To A Crash Or Hard Fall, More Concerned Than 1987, 1999 or 2007 46:38

25d ago46:38

46:38

Peter Grandich, veteran of 40+ years on Wall Street, delivers his most dire warning yet, saying he's more concerned than during the 1987 crash, dot-com bubble, or 2008 financial crisis due to deteriorating political, social, and economic conditions. He describes a dangerous "K-economy" where the top 10% own 86% of assets while the bottom 50% use cr…

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Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro 29:15

1M ago29:15

29:15

Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need…

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The Investors Who Think Hazelnuts Will Be the Next Pistachios 42:50

1M ago42:50

42:50

We're in an age where shocks can occur on both the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, the causes are well known. Pandemics, trade wars, and climate disruption have exposed the frailty of supply chains in goods too numerous to list. On the demand side, the tendency for certain goods to suddenly go "viral" among consumers can be imp…

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#280 Chris Whalen On Why The Fed Won't Be Cutting Rates In September 40:17

27d ago40:17

40:17

Chris Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and author of The Institutional Risk Analyst blog, returns to the show. He argues the Fed is unlikely to cut rates in September despite market expectations, with only a one-in-three chance due to FOMC dynamics and persistent inflation. He expects radical Fed reforms under Trump's nominee Steve Miran,…

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How to Move Freight Across the Icy Roads of Alaska 38:53

1M ago38:53

38:53

We're interested in trucking here at Odd Lots. It's one of those industries that can tell us a lot about the economy, both in terms of the short-term cycle, and also long-term structural trends. Of course, we know that the industry is prone to big boom and bust cycles. And Alaska itself -- driven so much by oil and natural resource extraction -- is…

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What an Alaskan Furniture Company Tells Us About Tariffs 34:37

1M ago34:37

34:37

Alaska is no stranger to supply chain issues and a higher cost of living. Almost everything has to be imported into the state, incurring longer lead times and extra transportation costs — and that’s even before adding in the new tariffs from the Trump administration. In this episode, we speak with Dave Cavitt, the founder and CEO of Furniture Enter…

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#279 Marc Faber: The Asset Price Illusion Will Eventually Collapse 48:40

1M ago48:40

48:40

Dr. Marc Faber, editor of the Gloom Boom and Doom Report, provides his characteristically pessimistic outlook, arguing that while Asian economies have bottomed out, mature Western economies are turning down amid unsustainable asset price inflation. He believes the 40-year asset bubble since 1980-81 is ending and "everything will go down eventually,…

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Mary Daly on Why Alaska Is a Leading Indicator for the US Economy 1:13:15

2M ago1:13:15

1:13:15

Alaska is one of the states in the Federal Reserve's 12th District, which is headquartered in San Francisco. For Mary Daly, the head of the SF Fed, the state right now is a leading indicator for the US economy overall. In an interview recorded on a trip to Anchorage, Daly tells us what she's learning from businesses in the state, how it relates to …

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Joseph Torigian on Xi Zhongxun and Elite Chinese Communist Party Politics 44:00

2M ago44:00

44:00

The Chinese Communist Party is probably one of the most difficult entities in the world to grasp due to its opacity of its inner workings. A new book from Joseph Torigian, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover History Lab and an associate professor at American University, sheds light on the entity by examining the life of Xi Zhongxun, the father o…

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#278 Anna Wong: What If We Are In A Recession And People Haven't Noticed Yet? 47:22

1M ago47:22

47:22

Anna Wong, Chief US Economist at Bloomberg Economics, analyzes shocking jobs revisions showing only 35,000 jobs added over three months and questions whether this signals real weakness or statistical noise. Using her team's "12 million prices project," she reveals tariff pass-through is already happening with audio equipment up 11%, while services …

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Bill Beach on How Trump Just Politicized US Economic Data 24:29

2M ago24:29

24:29

Late last week, Donald Trump shocked Wall Street by firing Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the agency responsible for publishing some of America's most important economic data. The firing came after the BLS released a weaker than expected jobs report for July, with just 73,000 new jobs added for the month (compared to …

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The AI Industry Is Becoming Like Professional Sports 52:04

2M ago52:04

52:04

When it comes to tech startups, you often hear about VCs making a ton of money, or founders experiencing life-changing exits. But something is changing in the world of AI. Now it's the engineers themselves getting pay packages that can be in the 9-figure range. Why is this? Why is it happening? How is it changing the culture of Silicon Valley and b…

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How to Make Money Selling Pizza in New York City 49:25

2M ago49:25

49:25

Everybody knows that New York City has a ton of pizzerias. And yet, new ones are opening up all the time. Why do we need more? And how is there still money to be made? On this episode, we speak with Alex Xenopolous, Evan Xenopolous, and James Shields, three restaurant entrepreneurs that recently opened up Xeno's Pizza, a shop close to the Bloomberg…

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What an LA Bakery Says About the Economy Right Now 47:04

2M ago47:04

47:04

Bakeries are great microcosms of the economy. There's lots of labor involved. You need commodities like flours and eggs, plus energy for your ovens. You need capital investment to get the ovens in the first place, and you need sustained consumer demand to keep you in business. Put it all together and you have a business that tells you a lot about w…

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#277 Danielle DiMartino Booth: What the historic Fed dissent really exposed about Powell's leadership crisis and why Trump's relentless pressure campaign could trigger an Armageddon scenario 24:14

1M ago24:14

24:14

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and Chief Strategist at QI Research, joins Julia La Roche in-studio on Fed day to analyze the historic FOMC meeting featuring the first double dissent since 1993, arguing it could have been a triple dissent based on softened statement language. She criticizes Powell's dismissive handling of the dissenters and Trump's p…

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Circle's CEO on the Booming Business of Stablecoins 49:26

2M ago49:26

49:26

Stablecoins are emerging as one of the most active areas of cryptocurrencies. The idea of using blockchain rails to transmit money has captured the attention of legacy financial institutions as well as policymakers, as evidenced by the recent passage of the GENIUS Act, which builds out a regulatory framework for that business. But what are the oppo…