#211 Black Friday Is Lying To You (What The Data Actually Says + What It Doesn’t) High Voltage Business Builders podcast

Content provided by Neil Twa. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Neil Twa or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

High Voltage Business Builders Podcast »
#211 Black Friday Is Lying To You (What the Data Actually Says + What It Doesn’t)

5d ago 8:13

MP3•Episode home

Everyone loves Cyber Week numbers. Big charts. Big screenshots. Big claims.

But Cyber Week data lies….

When demand is compressed into five days, behavior gets distorted. And if you build your next 90-day strategy on distorted data, you scale the wrong lesson.

In this Week in Review, Neil breaks down what the post–Cyber Week data actually reveals, why traffic and revenue spikes mislead sellers every December, and how real operators read the scoreboard differently heading into January and 2026.

🚀 What should I sell next? Visit: gpt.caimandata.com to generate data-driven product ideas powered by Caiman Data’s AI engine.

TL;DR

✅ Cyber Week spikes distort behavior. Post-event data tells the truth.

✅ Traffic growth does not equal buyer intent. Clicks fooled many sellers.

✅ BNPL inflated AOV but increased refund and cash-flow risk.

✅ Conversion quality flattened even as sessions rose.

✅ Operators wait for normalization data before making scaling decisions.

✅ December rewards control. January exposes poor interpretation.

📍 Chapters

00:00 Why Cyber Week data is structurally misleading

01:35 What Adobe and Salesforce data actually shows

02:14 Traffic growth versus real buyer intent

02:52 AOV, Buy Now Pay Later, and hidden cash-flow risk

03:51 Why traffic was cheap but conversion quality was not

04:29 What smart brands are watching heading into mid-December

05:08 Why stabilization beats noise at year-end

05:29 The operator advantage going into 2026

Follow Neil:

🔗 LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/neiltwa/

📸 Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/neiltwa/

📘 Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/neiltwa/

🐦 X/Twitter: https://twitter.com/voltagefba

🎵 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@fbabusinessbuilders

🎧 Like This Episode?

✅ Subscribe for weekly conversations with real founders

✅ Share this with a brand owner or marketer in your network

✅ Drop a review to help others discover the show

211 episodes