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Fat Tuesday | Cattle on a Gold Diet: When Feeders Act Like Bullion
Manage episode 512418630 series 3004060
Supply tightens even as front‑end cattle grow heavier and packers pace kills, creating a bullish medium‑term picture with choppy, risk‑heavy near‑term price action. We lay out why feeder highs may persist, how data gaps from the shutdown complicate decisions, and where heifer retention is starting to bite.
• counter‑seasonal decline in fed slaughter and record‑low August–September marketings
• heavier carcass weights and front‑end burdens into OND
• blended cutout rally then retracement with limited upside into holidays
• feeder highs, border closures, smaller calf crops, cheaper feed costs
• why 2014–15 comparisons fall short this cycle
• heifer retention signals and early cow herd bottoming
• government shutdown data gaps and trade flow shifts
• Brazil tariffs vs Australia/New Zealand supply
• risk management, hedging discipline, and margin awareness
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Thank you, Tommy G
Chapters
1. Setting The Stage: Cattle Highs (00:00:00)
2. Retail Pricing And Holiday Demand (00:02:53)
3. Show Format And Paywall Notice (00:04:03)
4. Counter‑Seasonal Slaughter Decline (00:04:43)
5. Record‑Low Marketings, Heavier Weights (00:06:48)
6. Cutout Rally, Then Retracement (00:09:08)
7. Feeder Highs And Mexico Border (00:10:26)
8. Why This Cycle Differs From 2014‑15 (00:12:13)
9. Risk, Hedging, And Market Tuition (00:14:13)
10. Data Gaps From Government Shutdown (00:15:13)
11. Brazil Tariffs And Imports Mix (00:17:18)
12. Heifer Retention Signals Emerging (00:18:28)
13. Crypto Hours, Gold Parallels, Correlations (00:20:18)
14. Wrap‑Up, Slides, And Subscription (00:22:18)
59 episodes
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