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From Theory to Practice - October 2, 2025 - 3 Ways to Use Delta: Probability Approximation

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Manage episode 510095537 series 68544
Content provided by tastylive. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by tastylive or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
In this educational session of From Theory to Practice, Jim Schultz continues his deep dive into Delta by explaining how traders can use it as a probability gauge - the second most common application beyond the textbook definition of measuring option price movement. Delta serves as an excellent probability approximator in two key ways: 1. **Probability of expiring in-the-money**: This explains why traders typically select 30-35 delta strikes for short options strategies. The inverse (1 minus delta) indicates the probability of expiring out-of-the-money - crucial for premium sellers. 2. **Probability of touch**: Calculated as two times the delta, this measures the likelihood that a price level will be reached at some point before expiration, helping traders assess potential market movements.
  continue reading

1645 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 510095537 series 68544
Content provided by tastylive. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by tastylive or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
In this educational session of From Theory to Practice, Jim Schultz continues his deep dive into Delta by explaining how traders can use it as a probability gauge - the second most common application beyond the textbook definition of measuring option price movement. Delta serves as an excellent probability approximator in two key ways: 1. **Probability of expiring in-the-money**: This explains why traders typically select 30-35 delta strikes for short options strategies. The inverse (1 minus delta) indicates the probability of expiring out-of-the-money - crucial for premium sellers. 2. **Probability of touch**: Calculated as two times the delta, this measures the likelihood that a price level will be reached at some point before expiration, helping traders assess potential market movements.
  continue reading

1645 episodes

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