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Options Trading Concepts Live - September 10, 2025 - What Rate Cuts Mean For USD

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Manage episode 505567235 series 68544
Content provided by tastylive. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by tastylive or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
The FX takeover segment explored what resumption of rate cuts means for the USD. Currently, markets fully price in a September rate cut with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut rather than the standard 25. Glen Frybarger highlighted that when the Fed delivered its previous jumbo cut in 2023, the dollar initially weakened but rebounded strongly within a month. This time, the environment is different - the dollar is already down 8% YTD against a currency basket despite other central banks cutting rates. Markets expect 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, with rates eventually reaching 3%. Batista and Butler took advantage of potential price extremes, establishing long dollar positions against Swiss franc, Euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. "The surprise is already baked into where we're at," Butler noted, while Freiberger pointed to strong technical support for dollar positions despite the anticipated cutting cycle.
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1595 episodes

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iconShare
 
Manage episode 505567235 series 68544
Content provided by tastylive. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by tastylive or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://podcastplayer.com/legal.
The FX takeover segment explored what resumption of rate cuts means for the USD. Currently, markets fully price in a September rate cut with a 10% chance of a 50 basis point cut rather than the standard 25. Glen Frybarger highlighted that when the Fed delivered its previous jumbo cut in 2023, the dollar initially weakened but rebounded strongly within a month. This time, the environment is different - the dollar is already down 8% YTD against a currency basket despite other central banks cutting rates. Markets expect 75 basis points in cuts by year-end, with rates eventually reaching 3%. Batista and Butler took advantage of potential price extremes, establishing long dollar positions against Swiss franc, Euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar. "The surprise is already baked into where we're at," Butler noted, while Freiberger pointed to strong technical support for dollar positions despite the anticipated cutting cycle.
  continue reading

1595 episodes

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