This episode examines emerging trade patterns and geopolitical pressures shaping the global canola market.

• India has re-entered the international rapeseed oil market by importing 6,000 tons from the United Arab Emirates. This marks a shift from its traditional reliance on palm, soybean, and sunflower oils, driven by a 34 percent surge in domestic rapeseed oil prices and a delayed local harvest. However, Indian buyers are already turning to more affordable alternatives like soybean oil.
• In Canada, tensions escalate due to a steep 75.8 percent tariff imposed by China on Canadian canola seeds, jeopardizing a market valued at C$5 billion annually. Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe and Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald are seeking federal support to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. This conflict highlights the crop's vital role in Canada's economy.
• Australia's export volume has plunged dramatically, from 4.95 million tons to just over 102,000 tons in June, due to limited current crop supplies. Optimism surrounds the upcoming November harvest, especially with expectations of renewed Chinese interest. Meanwhile, long-term production faces pressure from issues like blackleg disease, making continued government support essential.
• In a notable shift, China’s COFCO has signed contracts for 50,000 tons of Australian canola at prices below $600 per ton with freight, underscoring a strategic pivot away from Canadian imports amid tariff constraints.
• These developments reflect a rapidly evolving canola trade landscape, influenced by pricing volatility, export tariffs, and adaptive strategies across key producing and importing countries.