In this episode, we build the “low-drama” systems that keep your bets honest; a simple cadence of decision logs, evidence-first reviews, authentic dissent, premortems, and short after-action debriefs. Drawing on research from forecasting tournaments, medicine, and organisational psychology, you’ll get a practical operating rhythm that turns your leadership team into a lightweight forecasting engine; updating little and often, learning faster, and arguing less.

References:

1) Small steps to accuracy: Incremental belief updaters are better forecasters: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.02.001

2) Decision discovery using clinical decision support system decision log data for supporting the nurse decision-making process: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12911-024-02486-3

3) GRADE Evidence to Decision frameworks: a systematic and transparent approach: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i2016

4) Devil’s advocate versus authentic dissent: Stimulating quantity and quality of argument: https://doi.org/10.1002/ejsp.58

5) Performing a project premortem: https://hbr.org/2007/09/performing-a-project-premortem

6) A meta-analysis of the effectiveness of after-action reviews: https://doi.org/10.1037/apl0000821

7) Getting the most from after action reviews to improve global health security: https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-019-0500-z

Music Credit: Switch It Up, performed by Silent Partner, from the YouTube Studio Audio Library