#305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing The Julia La Roche Show podcast

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#305 James Lavish: The TGA — The Most Important Macro Concept Right Now That Most People Are Missing

13h ago 56:57

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James Lavish, co-managing partner of the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund and author of The Informationist newsletter, joins Episode 305 of the Julia La Roche Show. In this episode, Lavish explains how the government shutdown has locked nearly $1 trillion in the Treasury General Account, draining liquidity from financial systems and raising concerns about a 2019-style repo crisis as bank reserves fall to dangerous levels. He argues Americans have lost 25% of their purchasing power from 2020 to 2025, and while technology should bring deflation, we instead have persistent 3% inflation because it's necessary to manage $38 trillion in debt through currency debasement. Lavish explains the K-shaped economy where the top 1% gained 8X wealth since 1990 versus 4X for the bottom 50%, noting commercial real estate defaults are spiking and subprime auto lenders are collapsing. When the TGA liquidity eventually floods back into markets, he warns not to mistake it for prosperity—it's currency debasement, which is why he recommends positioning in hard assets like Bitcoin, gold, and real estate. The Fed is trapped between dual mandates with no way out, and while AI stocks may have gotten ahead of themselves risking a market shock, his message is clear: own assets because he's not bullish on the economy, he's bearish on the currency.

This episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJulia

Links:

Twitter/X: https://x.com/jameslavish

The Informationist: https://jameslavish.substack.com/

The Bitcoin Opportunity Fund: https://www.bitcoinopportunity.fund/

Timestamps:

0:00 - Introduction and welcome

1:20 - Big picture macro view: Fed battling dual mandates

4:30 - Stagflation risk: prices rising as economy rolls over

5:10 - Government shutdown removing liquidity from markets

7:19 - Treasury General Account (TGA) explained

14:21 - 2019 repo crisis explained

21:31 - Current concerns about overnight lending market

26:18 - Will Fed do QE again?

29:03 - Credit markets

29:07 - K-shaped economy explained

37:08 - Position for currency deterioration

38:28 - Why people think 2% inflation is normal

40:11 - Lost 25% purchasing power from 2020 to 2025

40:41 - Technology should bring deflation, not inflation

46:30 - Why we need inflation: $38 trillion debt problem

50:59 - What's keeping James up at night

55:27 - Closing remarks and contact information

306 episodes

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