In this episode, Vishal ties together this week’s “Decision-as-Bets” journey into a simple, powerful playbook you can carry forward. From framing calls as bets (with base rates, assumptions, and tripwires), to using the one-way/two-way door test, running regular updates and Brier scores, and sizing decisions with expected value. Listen in and give yourself a practical system to make better, faster, and more resilient decisions.

References:

1) Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

2) Heuristic Decision Making: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-120709-145346

3) The one-way vs. two-way door decision model: https://youtu.be/DcWqzZ3I2cY?feature=shared&t=3590

4) Identifying and Cultivating Superforecasters as a Method of Improving Probabilistic: https://doi.org/10.1177/1745691615577794

5) Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability: https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1950)078%3C0001:VOFEIT%3E2.0.CO;2

6) Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/38315.Fooled_by_Randomness

7) The Risk and Return of Venture Capital: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.03.006

8) A Message from Co-Founder & CEO Brian Chesky: https://news.airbnb.com/a-message-from-co-founder-and-ceo-brian-chesky

Music Credit: Switch It Up, performed by Silent Partner, from the YouTube Studio Audio Library