The massive victory by No. 9 Texas Tech over No. 7 BYU has profoundly simplified the Big 12 Championship picture, though a number of scenarios remain that could still create a chaotic finish to the 2025 season. As of Monday, November 10, the race for the two spots in the Arlington title game is effectively a three-way battle at the top, with the Red Raiders controlling their destiny.

The Most Likely Scenario: Texas Tech vs. BYU

This is the most probable outcome, given the current standings and remaining schedules.

Texas Tech's Straight Path: The Red Raiders (6-1 Big 12) own the critical head-to-head tiebreaker over BYU and are the clear frontrunner with the highest win probability (around 70%) to finish first. If Texas Tech wins its remaining conference games, they are guaranteed a spot in the Big 12 Championship.

BYU's Control: Despite the loss, BYU (5-1 Big 12) still controls its own destiny to the second spot. If the Cougars win their remaining three games—including a pivotal matchup with Cincinnati—they will finish with a 7-1 record, and the tiebreakers would likely put them in the title game against Texas Tech.

The Cincinnati Factor

The Bearcats (5-1 Big 12) are the main spoiler in the race:

Cincinnati's Critical Game: Cincinnati's path hinges on their ability to beat BYU later this month. If Cincinnati defeats BYU, the Cougars would drop to 5-2, and the Bearcats would leapfrog them for second place. If both Texas Tech and Cincinnati win out their remaining games, the title game would be Texas Tech vs. Cincinnati.

The Chaos Scenario: Three-Way Tie or More

If BYU, Cincinnati, and Texas Tech all finish with the same conference record (7-2 or 6-3), the complicated multi-team tiebreakers would come into play. This would rely on more upsets in the final weeks, potentially allowing a two-loss team like Utah (4-2 Big 12) or Houston (5-2 Big 12) to slip into the second spot. However, all three one-loss teams remain strong favorites in their remaining games, making the head-to-head results among the top three the most defining factors.

The Big 12 is set for a dramatic finish, but right now, all eyes are on Texas Tech to solidify their new position atop the league.

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