This week’s coffee market report.

• Brazil is forecast to significantly increase coffee production for the 2026–2027 season, reaching an estimated 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent rise from the previous year. This is largely driven by favorable weather and a projected Arabica yield of 47.2 million bags. However, Brazil’s national supply company has slightly revised its 2025 Arabica forecast downward by 4.9 percent, with total production now expected at 55.2 million bags. The recent lifting of a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee exports could boost trade, although 2025 export volumes have dropped 20.3 percent compared to 2024. Despite this, elevated international prices are helping sustain export value.
• Vietnam’s Robusta sector is also gaining momentum, with a projected 6 percent production increase pushing output to a four-year high of 1.76 million metric tons. While weather has been largely favorable, heavy rains in key areas like Dak Lak have caused harvest delays that could create short-term supply challenges.
• On the global front, coffee markets are sending mixed signals. The temporary postponement of the European Union’s deforestation regulation has eased pressure on exporters, while a slight 0.3 percent dip in global coffee exports signals continued tight supply conditions. The United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in global coffee production and a nearly 5 percent rise in ending stocks for the 2025–2026 season, suggesting some future supply relief.
• Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Arabica coffee futures have shown price volatility influenced by tariff changes and production forecasts. March 2026 futures reflect a market caught between easing short-term concerns and expectations of higher future output. Technical indicators suggest the market remains volatile but constrained within defined price ranges, requiring careful navigation of both immediate and long-term trends.