Best Stephen Pavlick Podcasts (2025)

1
RenMac Off-Script: Strategic Uncertainty 42:09

6h ago42:09

42:09

RenMac unpacks the latest employment report, the discrepancy between soft and hard data, the importance of considering “what can go right vs wrong” when bearish sentiment is at an extreme, the potential for thawing trade negotiations, the lack of escape velocity in this market but why we’re not pulling the plug on our tactical call, this week’s mai…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Clock Ticking on Trade 28:15

8d ago28:15

28:15

RenMac discusses Trump backing off on Powell’s firing, why a slower growth environment could mean a more consensus Fed pick, the latest in trade negotiations, what areas to watch to see how survey-data and hard-data reconcile, what tactical indicators we use to see where the bond market is headed, and a preview of next week’s employment data.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: “You're Fired”? 35:10

14d ago35:10

35:10

RenMac discusses the importance of the Fed’s independence, the likely options, the dark-cross in the Mag-7 and the implications historically for alpha generation, the latest on trade, the cards other countries may be able to play against the U.S. and why the dollar is an important window into the soul of a nation, plus a special Good Friday Mail-ba…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bond Market Takes Hostages 50:43

22d ago50:43

50:43

RenMac walks through the turmoil in bonds, China’s alternatives to creating negotiation leverage, deleveraging vs system risk, increasing recession outlook, tariff miscalculation, rising correlations, and the implications of the 10th best single day on the S&P in 100-years.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Obliteration Day 49:35

28d ago49:35

49:35

RenMac discusses the difference between trade deficits and tariffs, the “escalate to de-escalate” strategy, today’s payroll numbers, how the Fed is thinking about rates, the spike in capitulation measures, and having a mind-set of “what can go right”.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bad News Priced 36:50

1M ago36:50

36:50

RenMac discusses the upcoming “Liberation Day,” why much of the bad news might already be priced in, the strike price on the respective Trump and Fed put, and how economic conditions were already slowing before Trump was sworn into office, and AI’s mailbag gone wrong.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Tariffied 40:30

1M ago40:30

40:30

RenMac unpacks the FOMC meeting, Trump’s conversation with Putin, the deteriorating transportation names, tariff uncertainty, the likelihood of a downside economic surprise in coming months, Schumer’s unwinnable position and how moving averages can help generate alpha.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Eggs-cellent 41:02

2M ago41:02

41:02

RenMac discusses the potential strategy behind Schumer’s decision to avoid a government shutdown, the contribution of egg prices to CPI, the deteriorating news flow with the spike in bearish market sentiment, the potential Canadian tariff strategy (or lack thereof), why we’re not playing this as a bear-market and this week’s mailbag regarding marke…

1
RenMac Off-Script: A Weak Outlook Trump's Making Worse 33:22

2M ago33:22

33:22

RenMac dissects the payrolls, the latest tariff moves, the importance of credit indications and the complete unwind of beta as well as this weeks mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Policy Uncertainty 26:24

2M ago26:24

26:24

Renmac talks through the latest policy uncertainty and its history on markets, Neil interprets the latest housing and income data and how today is mirror image of 2022. Steve discusses the March 14th budget deadline and Jeff walks through the beta reversion and what look vulnerable at this point.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Data and Industrials 30:50

2M ago30:50

30:50

RenMac team discusses the potential for government shutdown and the calculus from Ds, the softening data and the risks created by the Fed, the deterioration in Industrials, the soft seasonality with cyclicals, China and this week’s RenMac mailbag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Valentine VAT 34:35

3M ago34:35

34:35

RenMac crew discusses the difference between a VAT and tariff, this week’s inflation data, our China/HK call, the notable deterioration in internal S&P trends, D’s leverage on DOGE, and this week’s mail-bag: gold.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Thin Kids At Fat Camp 35:20

3M ago35:20

35:20

RenMac discusses implications of the latest employment report, the alignment of market’s message and economic data, Trump’s “Flood the Zone” strategy, what policy uncertainty means for markets, Jeff’s provincial pronunciation and the latest question from RenMac’s Mail-BagBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Tick-Tock Tariffs 35:40

3M ago35:40

35:40

RenMac opines on tariffs and their economic impact, bar fights and political strategy, unpacking Jevon’s paradox, DeepSeek’s potential genome-sequencing moment for AI, handicapping this week’s confirmations, Fed’s outlook on inflation, the ongoing challenges in semiconductors, and RenMac’s mail-bag.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Inaugural Excoriation 31:52

3M ago31:52

31:52

RenMac discusses the busy week in Washinton, a reminder that the cameras are always on, the importance of oil to growth and inflation, executive order perspective, new highs in SPX and STOXX 600, market internals and the importance of 10yr yields.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Inflation Sensation 21:21

4M ago21:21

21:21

RenMac discusses the renewed improvement in consumer price inflation, the term premium as a driver of bond yields, the outperformance of financials and why value should continue to work in Q1, and a quick recap of Trump’s cabinet picks that are testifying on the Hill.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Yields Take Their Toll 17:13

4M ago17:13

17:13

RenMac discusses why the latest jobs number validates the Fed’s recent pivot and why this risks a passive policy tightening, the impact of higher yields on stocks, and President-Elect Trump’s views on territorial control over Greenland.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Uninspiring-ISMs 27:34

4M ago27:34

27:34

Jeff, Neil and Steve discuss the latest data from ISM, Johnson’s speakership, the dollar, yields, executive actions and the momentum factor in 2024 and implications for 2025.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump or Slump 23:46

4M ago23:46

23:46

RenMac discusses Speaker Johnson's future, the contrast in conference board confidence now versus 2016, lingering continuing clams data, the bounce in equities, the opportunities in Hong Kong and China and next week's data.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Jay Sees Ghost of Christmas Past 25:19

5M ago25:19

25:19

RenMac discusses Musk’s government shutdown, the politics behind Powell’s statement, Beta’s vulnerability, the decaying wall-of-worry and the potential for a currency crisis.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Bond Bull in a China Shop? 24:33

5M ago24:33

24:33

RenMac discusses the latest inflation data, why the data may be trending better for bonds than the consensus, how equity factors are set-up, the power vacuum in Syria, what’s behind Trump’s inauguration invite of Xi’s and Chinese equities.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Pardon the Payrolls 24:38

5M ago24:38

24:38

RenMac discusses the latest payroll data, bubbling animal spirits and sentiment, an update to our market cycle clock and pardon implications and precedents.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Overconfident? 26:11

5M ago26:11

26:11

RenMac discusses the mismatch between housing data and consumer confidence, the motivations behind Trump’s initial tariff salvo, how seasonality and sentiment are likely to play out in equities and the vulnerability created by the weak Russian Ruble.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Scott Bessent - (originally produced Feb 2021) 42:26

5M ago42:26

42:26

In early 2021, I had the opportunity to catch up with a good friend of mine through the years, Scott Bessent. Given Scott's new role as incoming Treasury Secretary under President elect Trump, I thought it might be helpful to understand how Scott thinks about and sees the world. Here's our conversation from 2021.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Treasury Apprentice 19:11

5M ago19:11

19:11

RenMac discusses: Latest developments with Trump appointments The horserace for Treasury secretary Ongoing weakness in labor demand Low bulls in Treasuries are bullish Impact of political appointments on specific sectorsBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Solid but Cooling 31:04

6M ago31:04

31:04

RenMac discusses latest inflation data and the impact on the Fed, what labor market’s are telling us about trajectory, Latest Trump nominations, Bitcoin Breakout, Bullish cyclical call stands in stark contrast to weak semiconductors.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Great Growth Re-Rate 25:17

6M ago25:17

25:17

Jeff, Neil, and Steve discuss: Expectations between now and election Accuracy of betting markets in defense of price discovery The big losers Path of unified government Inflation expectations Cyclical trade and market’s message Labor market conditions Powell’s future Importance of personnel to discern direction forward…

1
RenMac Off-Script: October Surprise 31:01

6M ago31:01

31:01

RenMac talks about the payroll surprise, the importance of NC and PA to Trump and Harris, elevated equity volatility and quiescent credit spreads and the Fed’s path into year’s endBy Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Is Kamala Under-Valued? 25:44

6M ago25:44

25:44

RenMac discusses the process of price discovery in the political prediction markets, the current state of the horserace, the outlook for employment, why Kevin Warsh is off-base in his criticism of the Fed’s September decision, and market seasonality.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Banker in Training 25:42

7M ago25:42

25:42

RenMac discusses this week’s data, the prospects of a shadow Fed Chair, the latest polls and candidates’ performance, China and how the overbought condition in yields tilts us toward cyclicality.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trump Bump 27:30

7M ago27:30

27:30

RenMac discusses: The latest shift in polls in the continued razor-thin election. The latest inflation data and how the sequence of jobs and inflation is impacting the Fed’s trajectory. The overbought condition in yields and the marginal benefit it should have for cyclicals vs defensive names. The bullish spread between equity volatility (VIX) and …

1
RenMac Off-Script: A Jobs Jolt 26:23

7M ago26:23

26:23

RenMac discusses the latest payroll surprise, the impact Helene is having on polling, China’s historic market strength, the improvement of cyclicals vs defensives, political October surprises and the upcoming inflation data.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: China Turns 19:44

7M ago19:44

19:44

Neil cameos from Oktoberfest while Steve and Jeff discuss the equity strength in China, Kamala’s border visit, the empty promises made by both camps prior to elections and the marginal improvement in bitcoin.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Sticking the Landing 22:53

8M ago22:53

22:53

RenMac discusses the expected 50bps rate cut, implications for future cuts, the trajectory of the data going forward, the market impact and the latest polling around battleground states.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Trump Takes De Bait 18:38

8M ago18:38

18:38

RenMac discusses why 50bps makes the most sense, the impact the debate is likely to have on the election, the changes in capital requirements at banks, and some bright spots in energy and silver.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls Pin 50 27:22

8M ago27:22

27:22

RenMac discusses the weak August employment report, why the next decision really is less about consensus and more about what Powell thinks, a preview of the Trump/Harris debate, and the defensive nature in the equity markets.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Game Day Walk Thru 17:04

8M ago17:04

17:04

With Neil and Steve on the beach, Jeff and Kevin walk through the market’s message, where the strength and weakness are building and fading, and what it means for the remainder of the year. The team dives deeper into the historical reactions seen by sectors and industries after the Fed’s first rate-cut in a cycle. Happy Labor Day weekend.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Revisionist History 31:52

8M ago31:52

31:52

The RenMac Team discusses the DNC and latest in the general election campaign, the folly of price controls, the sharp downward revision to payroll employment and what it means for the Fed ahead of Jackson Hole, the recent breakout in gold, balance sheet versus income recession, and how tight policy is based on the gap between two-year yields and th…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Markets vs Media: Which One is Gaslighting? 27:58

9M ago27:58

27:58

RenMac discusses the current sensitive state of markets and the possible impacts of the upcoming decision on rate cuts, Kamala’s potential economic policies, the DNC, and the influence of the presidential election on downballot races, and what next week’s data (as well as Jackson Hole) could mean for markets going forward.…

1
RenMac Off-Script Podcast: Claims, Cuts, and Complacency 22:24

9M ago22:24

22:24

RenMac discusses initial jobless claims, the baseline for rate cuts, and the growing risk of complacency from the Fed and market participants, Kamala’s VP pick (why wasn’t it Shapiro?) and the changing presidential odds, the Nikkei and the liquidity picture, as well as important data on deck for next week.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed's Folly 22:14

9M ago22:14

22:14

By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Markets are Oversold, but is Kamala Overbought? 23:27

9M ago23:27

23:27

RenMac discusses Harris’s candidacy and her potential picks for Vice President, GDP, inflation data, and what they mean for the Fed’s upcoming rate cuts, dark crosses in yields (why is the two-year yield down?), oversold conditions throughout the market, and important political and economic information to come next week.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Will Cut Rates, but Will the Democrats Cut Biden? 23:00

10M ago23:00

23:00

RenMac discusses the possibility and potential implications of Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race, his likely replacement (will Democrats bypass Harris?), when and how many times the Fed will cut rates, small cap versus large cap, what recent and upcoming data can show about markets, and the future of the semiconductor trade.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Everyone Biden Time: Rate Cuts to Politics 24:51

10M ago24:51

24:51

RenMac discusses Biden’s struggles and how the Democrats will move forward, Trump’s potential picks for Vice President (is Nikki Haley his best option?), weaker inflation and the potential for a September rate cut, expectations for the retail and auto sectors, and the disconnect between the three Russell indices.…

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation on the Labor Market with Guy Berger 42:22

10M ago42:22

42:22

Guy Berger is someone I had the good fortune of overlapping with at Bank of America. Over the years, Guy has become my go-to resource for all questions on the labor market. After many years as the Principal Economist at LinkedIn, he is now the Director of Research at the Burning Glass Institute, a research outfit focusing on labor market trends. He…

1
RenMac Legends: A Conversation with Walter Deemer 22:50

10M ago22:50

22:50

Bullish Sentiment Thru the Ages Jeff deGraaf talks with Walt Deemer about the elevated bullish sentiment, stories from the nifty-fifty, differentiating good investments vs good companies, the importance of expectations vs narratives, and how it applies today. Enjoy the Holiday Weekend.By Jeff deGraaf, Neil Dutta, & Stephen Pavlick

1
RenMac Off-Script: Payrolls and Politics 23:11

10M ago23:11

23:11

RenMac discusses payrolls and what this means for the Fed in lieu of next week’s core inflation number, what the betting markets are telling us about Kamala Harris’ role on the presidential ticket, how performance in the first half of the year affects the second half, and cyclicality in the current market.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Debate & Switch? 19:40

10M ago19:40

19:40

RenMac discusses the options for Democrats to replace Biden following the debate, how the stock market has reacted to the presidential polls, why Neil thinks the balance of risk suggests that the Fed could make a minor monetary mistake by not cutting in September, the symptoms of liquidity and what the movement in Bitcoin and IPOs might suggest, an…

1
RenMac Off-Script: Biden's Burden 23:16

11M ago23:16

23:16

RenMac discusses why housing is hurting, why economic growth in 2024 will be worse than in 2023, how the Fed's risk distribution has shifted, why this is not a momentum market, the potential outside reversal in Nvidia, the positive correlation between banks and yields, and the dynamics of the upcoming presidential debate.…

1
RenMac Off-Script: The Fed Needs To Get On With It 22:35

11M ago22:35

22:35

RenMac discusses whether global election trends will impact the U.S., the significantly different U.S. presidential election forecasts between 538 and the Economist, the improving inflation picture, why admission by omission suggests a September interest rate cut is likely, how oversold conditions are creating opportunities, and why things may be s…

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